With all the protesting and not knowing which games will actually be played the last few days I stepped away. Now however I THINK things are back to normal and we should be back to normal, or as normal as 2020 gets anyways. No time for full write ups but here’s what I’m playing with a few quick thoughts on each…
Cubs/Reds Un 6 (-120), GAME 1: To avoid confusion this is game 1 of the doubleheader and pitching wise you’re looking for the Darvish/Bauer matchup. Two elite pitchers, shortened 7 inning game, and if it’s close we can probably go ahead and scratch the underbelly of both bullpens. If it’s Darvish and Bauer both either going the whole way or handing it directly to their best relievers then I’ll happily take my chances at under 6. Both pitchers have been outstanding this year.
1st 5 Innings Giants/D-Backs Un 5.5 (-110): Luke Weaver is much better than that 7.77 ERA shows. He has a 10.36 K/9 and in his last 2 starts is starting to round back into form. 10.2 Innings, 3 ER, 2 BB, 11 K’s in that span. Dealing with a weak lineup tonight he should be fine. With a 1.64 ERA there’s no doubt Cahill is pitching over his head but as recently as 2018 he was a sub 4 ERA and xFIP guy with a 2.0 WAR. Was dominant against the snakes last week. Probably not to that level today but he should be able to keep them under control again.
Mariners (+157): Dylan Bundy’s first 4 starts were great, but the most recent two look like Orioles Bundy again. 9.2 innings, 11 hits, 6 ER, 5 BB’s, 9 K’s. Season numbers are still strong but it looks like the league has begun to adjust to the adjustments Bundy brought with him into this season. Sheffield will go for the Mariners and he’s been plenty respectable. 3.51 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, decent K and BB rates, ground ball rate is nearly 50%, and in his last 3 starts he’s been great. 18 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 16 K’s. I only made Seattle +139 in this one.