19
AUG
2020

MLB 8/19

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Well, no way around it, last night was my worst of the season. The +230 Mariners fell short 2-1 at LA despite a great outing from Marco Gonzales, the + 145 Brewers fell short in extra innings, and both totals bit the dust too. 0-4 as mentioned was the worst day of the season so I guess nowhere to go but up from here. No full write ups today but I did include a few quick thoughts on each of my plays. Here’s what I have…

Rangers (+122): Lance Lynn continues to drink from the fountain of youth. Off that monster 6.8 WAR season last year he’s back at it this year with a 1.11 ERA and 10.02 K/9 through 5 starts. He’s very tough on righties which is big in controlling Tatis, Machado, Myers. Paddack still solid but until he develops/improves that curveball he’s going to struggle to take the next step. K’s also a bit down from last year. Even though he was struggling Yates loss is huge blow to the bullpen.

Nationals/Braves Ov 10.5 (-110): Should be plenty of runs in Atlanta tonight. Fedde is about as low of a strikeout SP as you’ll find. 5.97 career K/9 and hasn’t started a game since last month. 5 innings or so probably best case scenario for Nats. Wright has been a mess for the Braves. In his 4 starts he’s only gone over 3.1 innings once. 9.60 BB/9 is absurdly bad and his 7.75 career BB/9 in 40.2 innings is obviously concerning. Bad starters, plenty of bullpen innings, feels like a 7-5 type game.

Athletics (-157): Feels like a slight discount on the A’s here in a game where I actually lined them at -184. Yes Merrill Kelly has been good to start the year but he has a 100% LOB rate and an xFIP of 3.75 which is 2 runs higher than his ERA. Luzardo has had a bit of a rough start but he’s getting a lot of ground balls, his xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA and he’s still throwing in the mid-high 90’s. A’s a clear lineup and bullpen advantage too. Marte (Ketel) smashes left handers but just about every other big Arizona bat fares better against righties.

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