MLB 8/11

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A pretty straight forward 1-0 last night with the Astros taking care of the Giants. 6-4 was the final but at 6-0 going into the 7th and McCullers working on a no hitter the game was never really in doubt. Moving back in the right direction lately and hoping to keep it going tonight. Here’s what I have…

Astros (-165): The market is clearly down on the Astros right now and while I am too it’s certainly not to this extent. Yesterday Giants money dropped the line into a playable range and it looks like we’ve got the same story today. Bielak’s ERA is clearly fools gold and realistically I see him as a 4.30-4.50 ERA type. That’s good enough against a lineup like SF though. Anderson facing an army of right handers should have a tough night. His ERA arguably more fools gold than Bielaks. I make this one Houston -188.

Athletics (+143): I’ve mentioned Dylan Bundy a few times recently and he’s put some money in my pocket during that time. That said what he’s doing is no longer a secret and it’s possible the market has now over-reacted a bit. Yes he’s been great, but this is a nice number for an Oakland team that all around is pretty clearly better. Fiers has been bad but given everything else the gap between he and Bundy isn’t enough to justify being this heavy of chalk. I made it Oakland +124 and really didn’t the opener was too far off.

Nationals (-140): This is a very nice price to get Max Scherzer. Yes the Nats aren’t what they were last year but Mad Max is still nasty as ever. In his first 3 starts this year he has a 14.49 K/9 and a 2.38 xFIP. Yes the BB’s are up but I’ll trust his track record of great control and assume that’s just a brief/fluke thing. On the other end we have Porcello who while not finished yet is certainly heading in that direction. Having Soto back is enormous for this offense and of course he’s out of the gate scalding hot. Think Nats bats have some fun. My line is Nats -161

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