MLB 7/28

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A 2-0 mini sweep on Monday with the A’s and Rays both easily taking care of business. The early season results continue to ping pong but at slightly in the black at the moment and we keep it moving. Here’s what I’m going with for Tuesday…

Dodgers (-130): 2017 rematch here as the Astros find themselves regular season underdogs for the first time in 80 games. I think it’s with good reason, and at -130 it isn’t by enough. The Dodgers will be sending Walker Buehler to the mound and he’s well on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in the game, if not there already. He’s 26 years old (birthday today actually) and coming right into the prime of his career. Throws high 90’s, high K’s, low BB’s, and all the peripherals check out. He’s the real deal and as a power righty should be in a good spot to control the Astros right hand heavy lineup. Springer, Altuve, Correa, Bregman all figure to have their hands full. With Alvarez out there isn’t a ton that scares you from the left side with the Astros. The ‘Stros will counter with Framber Valdez who frankly I’m just not a fan of. In 107.2 career innings he has a 5.68 BB/9 and it’s just so difficult to find success when dishing out free passes like that. He’s left handed, flirts with 9 K/9, and gets 62% ground balls so I do see the appeal to an extent, but unless he can get those walks under control the rest isn’t going to be enough to help him. A stacked Dodgers lineup should be able to get to him and then into the banged up Houston bullpen. Been a little surprised by the early line movement here and I’m going to go against it.

Giants (+130) & Padres/Giants Ov 8.5 (-105): Going to play both the Giants and the over this one. I know the Gigantes are awful but this is a pretty nice price to go against Zach Davies. Davies put up a 3.55 ERA last year but it was about fools gold as you’re going to get. He had 5.75 K/9 which in todays game is about as low as you’ll see. Bottom 5% stuff. Also only had a 40.1% ground ball rate. So what we have is a guy who allows a ton of contact and most of it is in the air. Not really a good combo, and considering he rarely even hits 90 with his fastball not terribly surprising either. Padres bullpen went 5.1 IP last night while Giants had the day off. SD will still have the edge when the game heads to the pens but in my opinion not as wide as it’d usually be. On the mound the Giants will send Samardzija who had a bit of a rebound in 2019. He was by no means great but a 1.5 WAR after the -0.1 in 2018 showed that perhaps he isn’t quite finished yet. Like Davies however his peripherals don’t really check out and his ERA was a bit fools gold. Another low K, low ground ball guy. His stuff hasn’t quite diminished to Davies level though. He’s still 91-93 MPH with the fastball and that’s at least respectable. Once he hands it off the bullpen it’s usually ugly but with the day off you figure a slight up tick. Looking for a 6-4 Giants type of game.

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