27
JUL
2020

MLB 7/27

comment : 0

3-0 Saturday but unfortunately followed it up with an 0-2 Sunday. Treading water here in the early going but at this point it’s more about hoping there’s actually more season to come. Today the Marlins news is everywhere you look and with it comes questions about what MLB does from here. As of my typing this only two games have been cancelled though so we’ll proceed with what’s left and hope for the best. Here’s what I’m going with…

Rays (-136): A lot of questions around Mike Foltynewicz coming into this one. In his final tune up his fastball was sitting around 90 MPH and that’s a big deal for a guy who normally lives in the mid-high 90’s. He’s generally a high pitch count guy to begin with and factoring in his arm and body don’t seem to be 100% yet it’s hard to imagine him going more than 4 or 5 innings. The Braves bullpen is solid but by no means great and certainly not to the level of the Rays bullpen arms. On the other end the Rays will be sending Tyler Glasnow who if he can stay healthy has Cy Young level stuff. Last year in limited innings he put up video game numbers. In his 12 starts he’s posted a 1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 76/14 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings. Most pitchers aren’t going more than 80-90 pitches or so in the early going so I’d be perfectly happy with 5 strong innings from Glasnow then handing it off to the best bullpen in the game. Also I don’t want to ignore he fact the Braves had a game in NY last night that ended after 10 PM. Hard to quantify exactly how much that matters but it’s fair to say traveling afterwards is far less ideal than Tampa playing a day game and then staying in town waiting for the Braves to arrive. This one briefly got over -150 ish and at that price I’d have passed. At -136 though I think there’s some value here.

Athletics (-114): A pretty reasonable price to back the A’s here as they take on Griffin Canning and the Halos. Canning has a had a little bit of elbow trouble leading into the season and you wouldn’t think the Angels are too aggressive with him. Similar to Folty in that Rays/Braves write up I could see this being a 75 pitch, 4-5 inning type outing for the Angels right hander. From there they hand it to a bullpen that I rate nearly bottom 5 in the league. Not a complete dumpster fire, but in my opinion clearly below league average. They’ll have to deal with a solid A’s lineup and you figure the A’s bats have a little fun today. On the mound they’ll counter with Chris Bassitt who is coming off a pretty solid 2019. The right hander had an 8.81 K/9 to go with just a 2.94 BB/9. His velocity jumped a bit last year and his changeup is starting to come along. He’s a guy that seems to be heading in the right direction. Again it’s not terribly realistic to expect 100 pitch, 7 inning outings from anyone right now which makes bullpens all the more important. Oakland has a clear edge down there and with lineups that I rate fairly close I see -114 as a bit of a discount. I make this line A’s -127.

Summary: 

Rays (-136)
Athletics (-114)

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