09
MAR
2020

NCAAB 3/9

comment : 0

A wild week in the books and this one will be even better. Monday is sort of the calm before the storm as most conferences start later in the week. That said I did find one (for now)…

BYU (-4): I figured I’d be on BYU before knowing the line because I’m above market on the Cougars and a bit below market on Saint Mary’s… and sure enough here we are. I made this line 6.5 and just can’t pass on only laying 4. To say I love the BYU offense in this matchup is an understatement. The Cougs are 5th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and should really be able to do just about whatever they want against this Gaels defense. Saint Mary’s checks in at 110th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and honestly that’s even misleadingly high. It’s propped up by non conference play and has been trending down ever since WCC play began. In short they’ve been a below D1 average defense for the last 2 months. BYU just has too many weapons, too many threats, and are too explosive. They are the #1 3 point shooting team in the nation at 42% and now with Childs back dominating inside they can beat you there too. Gaels defense is significantly below average inside. On the other end of the floor is basically Jordan Ford show. In their 2 OT win over Pepperdine Saturday night Ford played all 50 minutes and attempted 30 shots and most of the ones he didn’t attempt his pass led directly to it. For as great as he is the Gaels just ask him to do so damn much. There isn’t much margin of error if he isn’t going off, especially given the offensive success I expect BYU to have. I almost went with the over too but really do like BYU here.

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