1-0 Monday on a play that I’ll 100% admit should have lost. Texas Tech/Baylor going to OT allowed me to hit the 2nd half over. On the season now I’ve won 7 overs due to the game going to OT but had 16 would’ve been under winners lose due to OT. I still have a far way to go before these “even out” so until then I’m not looking to apologize for any lucky wins. Moving on we head to the Tuesday card. Here’s what I’m going with….
IUPUI (+9): Going to roll with Jaguars here catching nearly double digits against UIC. Nothing sexy write up wise but the if I’m staying true to my numbers then there is some value with IUPUI. This will be their third meeting this year and while yes UIC did win both, the Jags were able to hang around each time. In the first meeting they lost by 9, then in the 2nd meeting (at Chicago) they only lost by 5 and were down by 1 with just a few minutes left. In fact they shot 13 of 27 from the FT line and even by their standards that’s horrid. Even shooting 65% or so they probably end up winning that game. Those two games fall in line with what I expect in this one. I know betting a 7-24 team isn’t easy to do but with Burk and Goss they do have two solid wings who can play a little bit. Can a get step further and say they are the better offensive team here. You wouldn’t think that from looking at the line but it’s true. I won’t say good but let’s call the Jaguars offense the less awful of the two. Their defense however has been horrid, luckily for them UIC isn’t the kind of team that should be able to really capitalize on it. The Flames are 279th in offensive efficiency due in large part to checking in 340th in turnover rate. At the end of the day there’s just nothing I see that justifies a line this high. My number is -6.5 and even though it’s ticked down from the open I still think there’s value at +9.
UW Milwaukee (+6): I think this is a nice spot to buy low on the Panthers. They’ve lost 5 straight but all 5 of those losses were by 7 points or less. This is a team that’s been competing and been in games and I don’t see that changing in this one. Youngstown State meanwhile has won 5 of 8 and is playing well but in my opinion probably a bit over their heads too. These teams split their two meetings this year and that feels fitting because both were coin flip type games. The first of which a 2 point OT win for Milwaukee last month and then just this last Saturday 4 point win for the Penguins. When you look back at all these close losses you are left with a somewhat skewed record. As I’ve said before I hate to be “a bounce here, a bounce there” guy but in their case a 15-15 record wouldn’t be far fetched at all. The backcourt of Roy and Lucas is actually pretty solid. Two veteran PG’s who are the clear leaders of the team. Neither guy afraid to go into the paint and mix it up and both capable of beating you from deep. In conference play just about all of their team numbers/metrics were around middle of the pack or better and I just don’t see where these extra points are coming from. The Youngstown defense has been awful of late and despite ugly season numbers the Milwaukee offense is actually trending in the right direction. I only make the line 4 in this game and at 6 I’ll happily take my chances.
South Florida (+4.5) & Cincy/South Florida Un 127.5: Doesn’t work out this way often but I’m going side and total in the same game here and in a way it’s just a double fade of the Cincy offense. Their season numbers are still respectable but that’s heavily aided by some nice early season out of conference work. In conference play it’s been a totally different story and recently it’s gotten very ugly. To me the problem is pretty apparent both from a numbers and visual standpoint. The numbers say Cumberland’s usage rates are way up and you can sure as hell tell when you watch the Cats offense operate. Many possessions he dribbles 15-20 seconds himself seemingly winging it half the time. He’s had a nice career but if we’re being frank he’s had a rough season. Efficiency wise he’s actually a below D1 average player right now. Here he’ll see a pretty stout South Florida defense. As a team the Bulls are 17th in the nation in forcing turnovers and while the offense has had their struggles the defense has been solid throughout. I think this game becomes a snail and even the 64 possessions Ken Pom projects could be 2-3 too high. The Bulls are already slow as hell on both ends checking in at 331st in adjusted tempo. Cincy has been moving in that direction too as their pace in conference play has been slower. Throw in my already mentioned thoughts about the Cincy offense and I could see them having a tough time even hitting 60 points. The USF offense is nothing to write home about either. They’ve been brutal in conference play and I really think this game becomes a rock fight. The line and total imply a 65-61 type game but I could see it more as a first to 55 wins. At the end of the day I’m just below market on Cincy and If I’m actually going to trust what I’m doing they are a play that needs to be made.
UW Milwaukee (+6)
South Florida (+4.5)
Cincy/South Florida Un 127.5