NCAAB 3/10

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Not a ton going on today as this is a bit of a calm before the storm slate. Under 20 games to work with and that’ll be nothing compared with what’s on the way in the coming days. Here’s what I’m going with…

Northeastern (+1.5): Hofstra won both regular season meetings but did so by just a combined 6 points. In the first meeting Northeastern led with under 4 mins before losing by 2. In the 2nd meeting Northeastern actually led by 14 in the 2nd half before Hofstra stormed back to win by 4. What I like most about the Huskies is that offense. They are 8th in the nation in adjusted FG%, 28th in 3 point %, 20th in 3 point %, and 3rd in FT%. Simply put, they can really shoot and right now they are in good form. Check out these PPP’s from their last 5 games… 1.18, 1.28, 1.12, 1.18, and 1.11. In the two meetings so far the Huskies have shot 10-33 from 3 and to expect a 3rd straight subpar night from 3 isn’t terribly realistic. Roland is going to be the best player on the floor and he’s roasted the Pride in the two meetings. In those meetings he put up 60 points and has efficiency numbers through the roof. The issue is he hasn’t had enough help from the supporting cast. If he gets a decent amount of help from the Brace’s and Walker’s of the world I think they can get this done. Motivation won’t be a problem on either end and I expect this one to come down to the final minutes. Personally I make this line PK so getting 1.5 I’ll take my chances.

Saint Mary’s/Gonzaga Ov 143.5: This isn’t a game I would have messed with at 148.5 but now that the total has dropped this much I’ll go ahead and get involved with the over. Last night’s 51-50 game against BYU was the kind of game that makes your eyes bleed but tonight should be more the norm. The two regular season meetings averaged 69 possessions and if we can be right around that number again I see them having a tough time staying under this number. Gonzaga is first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and even after the clunker last night Saint Mary’s is still 16th. For as great as Gonzaga I wouldn’t call the defense elite. At 42nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency they good but not great. As far as the Gaels they had a nice defensive showing last night but BYU just seemed completely out of sorts. The fact is Saint Mary’s has been a below average defense since the start of WCC play. In the two meetings this year Gonzaga lit them up for 1.23 and 1.32 PPP. Flat out did whatever they wanted.  Ford was a bit below his normal level and probably gassed from playing 50 mins against Pepperdine on Saturday but Fitts, Kuhse and Krebs combined to shoot 3 for 24. Should be some positive regression for the Gaels offense and as I said with the line dropping so much it’s now in a range where I can’t pass it up.

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