Took the last two days off but ready to get back in there today. Actually a halfway decent Tuesday slate to work with and I feel good about what I ended up playing. I know you can say that every day but I really do like this card. Anyways, here’s what I’m going with… No time for full write ups but I do have a few quick thoughts on each play.
Auburn/Arkansas Ov 143: Arkansas overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed by non conference play. In conference play they are still solid but not much better than D1 average. Same story for Auburn as conference play has brought their defense back towards earth too. Both teams have also turned up pace a bit since start of conference play. Checks all the boxes I’m looking for.
U Mass (+16): Just too many points for a URI team that’s probably a bit over-valued right now. I only made the line 13 and 16 feels inflated for a conference game. They’ve only won 1 conference game by that margin or more all year. I think U Mass guards big enough to wear down Fatts and Dotwin a bit. Rams in no real danger of losing but U Mass should hang around. URI by 10-12 ish
Wyoming (+10): Just like all Wyoming games this will be no beauty contest. For as bad as Wyoming is overall their defense is actually better than D1 average in adjusted efficiency. On that end of the floor they are actually respectable and I think they can keep the Broncos in check. Maldonado always a pain in the ass matchup and Marble really been playing well of late. Offense isn’t as putrid as it was a month or so ago. They still probably lose but it’ll be by 4-6 ish
Buffalo/Eastern Michigan Ov 140.5: This thing has already a bit up from the opener but I still think there’s value to be had here. More than anything else the possessions should be there. Might get into the mid 70’s and if so I love my chances. EMU has sped things up a bit in conference play and you know Buffalo is warp speed from the time they get off the bus. If the offense is somehow bad enough to stay under I can live with that loss.
Auburn/Arkansas Ov 143
U Mass (+16)
Buffalo/Eastern Michigan Ov 140.5