03
JAN
2020

NCAAB 1/3

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Thursday: 2-5, (28.57%) 

November: 74-72-1, (50.68%)
December: 68-65-1, (51.12%)
January: 2-5-0, (28.57%)

Season: 144-142-2, (50.34%) 

Sides: 76-66-2, (53.52%) 
Totals: 68-76, (47.22%)
Overall: 144-142-2, (50.34%)

A rough 2-5 night on Thursday. Deserved every bit of 4 of the losses but Purdue going to OT ruined my under there. Losing night regardless but 3-4 easier to deal with than 2-5. Totals continue to struggle but in fairness that’s now 8 unders I’ve lost due to OT. On the flip side I’ve only won 1 over due to OT. That’s a hell of a dent in my record. Not trying to make excuses but that’s just a flat out fact. Anyways, we move on to Friday. Here’s what I’ve got… 

Oakland (+3.5): This is a bit of a tricky matchup for Wright State as they hit the road to deal with Oakland. The Raiders don’t do much from 3 point, instead most of their damage comes from the inside. That however plays right into the strength of the Oakland defense. Only 43.8% of the points Oakland allows are from 2 point land and that ranks 326th highest in the nation. Tonight should be more of the same as the Grizzlies have a very nice size edge pretty much across the board. Love recently returned to the lineup and that’s a nice boost for Wright St but he’s the only guy on the roster over 6’6″ that actually sees big minutes. Basile is 6’9″ but he’s only played a combined 10 mins in the last 2 games. When it comes down to guys who will actually play meaningful minutes it’s Wampler and Holden (both 6’6″) that are the tallest they’ve got. The way to beat Oakland is from 3 point land. The Grizzlies 3 point defense has been very shaky but Wright State just isn’t built to take advantage of it. As a team Wright State is 192nd in 3 point percentage and only 27.2% of the points they score are from 3 which is 258th in the nation. On the other end the best way to attack the Raiders is going inside which is perfect for Oakland because frankly they can’t shoot it from 3 either. 56.7% of the points Wright State allows are from 2 and that’s 47th most in the nation. As a point of reference 50.6% of points scored from 2 is D1 average so Wright State is 6% worse than that. This bodes well for Hill-Mais who is Oaklands best player and a guy who loves to slash and get into the paint. Oladapo has been emerging of late and he fits that mold for Oakland too. Those two combine for about 27 points a game and I could see that duo going for 35-40 tonight. On top of all that Oakland will slow the tempo and force Wright State to play much slower than they’d like. From there they’ll have to find a way to score inside despite the big size disadvantage I mentioned earlier or light it up from 3 which really isn’t in their DNA. All around just a tough spot for Wright State, I’ll happily take the home dog here getting 3.5

Illinois-Chicago (+6): This is a matchup that I think works out pretty nicely for the Flames. If you are looking for a 3 point shooting due for some positive regression it’s Illinois-Chicago. All of their best 3 point shooters and shooting well below their career levels and if there’s a defense out there to remedy that problem it’s Green Bay. As a team Green Bay allows opponents to shoot 39% from 3 point land which is 339th in the nation. Frankly they are much better and defending the paint either but the 3 point line is where they really have trouble. Now on the surface a UIC team shooting 32.9% from 3 isn’t going to scare you, but a deeper look reveals what I mentioned before, there are some damn good shooters on that team due to start heating up. Ferguson is under 30% this year, and a 35% shooter in his career. Boahen is at 30% this year and 38.5% on his career, and to a lesser extent even Ahale is down a bit from his numbers last season. That trio has gotta be licking their chops for a chance to hoist some 3’s against this defense. Even though they haven’t been going at a level they’d like the Flames still aren’t bashful about getting those 3’s up. As a team 44.8% of their field goal attempts are from 3 and that’s 35th highest in the country. At the end of the day this is a team that at least career wise has plenty of good 3 point shooters. It doesn’t always work out but you give me good 3 point shooters against a horrid 3 point shooting defense and I’ll take my chances. On top of everything mentioned about 3 point shooting, Green Bay is horrible inside too. As a team they allow opponents to shoot 53.9% from 2 which is 300th in the nation. UIC has a size edge and while they prefer to bomb from outside they can have some success down low with the slashing of Diggins and the 6’10” Bridges. I’ll concede Green Bay should have some fun offensively too but not enough to justify laying 6. I made this number 3 so at 6 it’s play worthy. I also kicked around the over but now up to 161.5 I think any value there is gone.

Summary: 

Oakland (+3.5)
Illinois-Chicago (+6)

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