20
JAN
2020

NCAAB 1/20

comment : Off

As usual not a ton to work with on the Monday card but I did find two that I see as having some value. Here’s what I’m going with…

Old Dominion (-4.5): I know it seems weird to see a 6-12 team as a 4.5 point favorite over a 10-6 team but in this case I think it’s warranted… and then some. Charlotte has had a nice start but realistically they are playing way over their heads. They’ve jumped 101 spots from their Ken Pom season open and while that’s great, it’s probably not sustainable. Also this will be the 3rd road game in 5 days for the 49ers. I know these are college kids but that’s still 3 cites, 3 games, 5 days and that’s not to be taken lightly. At 6-12 I can’t say a ton great about Old Dominion but one clear strength they have is being excellent down low. As a team 59.9% of their points are from 2 point land which ranks 9th in the nation. Defensively only 42.9% of the points they allow are from 2 and that ranks 14th best in the nation. While they don’t have elite height ODU is still well above D1 average. If Charlotte does indeed end up being overwhelmed inside that’s trouble because they can’t really shoot it from outside either. As a team only 24.7% of Charlotte’s points are from 3 and that’s 303rd in the nation. They like to get inside and get to the line but really don’t shoot the 3 often or well. As you can probably see what I’m getting at is this is a pretty rough matchup for the Charlotte offense. Now obviously the ODU offense is no masterpiece either but this is where I think that size edge comes into play. If we’re being frank neither team can shoot, but if ODU bullies their way into lay ups and dunks that’s probably the difference. Lastly I’ll point out that while yes ODU is 6-12 on the season, they are 5-2 at home. They’ve been beaten up on the road and in neutrals, but at home they generally play pretty well. They should take care of business and this one by 8-10 ish.

Weber State (+4): By no means is Weber State anything special but I do think they are a better team than they are playing like right now. Currently they are ranked 291 by Ken Pom, but they were 230 before the season began. Again, I know 230 is nothing special but the talent level is higher than the way they’ve been playing. On the other end I think the exact opposite about Portland State. I think they’ve played a bit over their heads. If this game were being played to open the season (even at Portland State) you’re probably looking at Weber -1/-2 ish. Point being I don’t think the gap between these teams has grown 6 points since the start of the season. Sure Portland State should be favored, but I made them -1 and with that as my number I’m not going to pass on a +4. As far as the game itself goes it’s strength on strength. Both teams like to score inside and neither one really messes with the 3 much. It looks like Hauser will be out again and that’s a massive loss because for the most part he’s the only true 3 point shooting threat Portland State has. With him out the Vikings have nothing that will scare you from outside. Woods has improved from deep but even still from a defensive perspective he’s still a let him chuck it and live with the results guy. At least with John, Harding (though ice cold this year), and on a lesser scale Cunningham Weber State has a few guys that are respectable from deep. At the end of the day this is probably a down to the wire game and without wanting to sound like I’m over simplifying, in a game like that just gimme the 4 and let me take my chances.

Summary: 

Old Dominion (-4.5)
Weber State (+4)

About the Author