18
DEC
2019

NCAAB 12/18

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Site ran into some issues the last few days but I think it’s all patched up and good to go now. Just like everyone else with the holidays here I’ve got a million things on my plate right now. For that reason write ups will be a little scarce the next week or two. I’ll get back to them as soon as I can but for the most part it’ll be a few thoughts with my plays as time allows. That said here’s what I have for Wednesday…

Xavier (-15): Yes, Western Carolina is 7-2 but their best win was over Jacksonville who is 221st in Ken Pom. Xavier in bounce back mode off the Wake loss and they have a massive edge inside. They should dominate in the paint, Marshall, Jones and Scruggs in particular. Looks like a blowout.

Georgia Tech (-4): Bounce back spot for the Jackets off back to back losses against Cuse and Kentucky. Ball State completely outmatched on the inside. They’ll need to hit a bunch of 3’s to hang around and Tech been strong protecting the 3 point line. Jackets by 8-10 ish

UNLV (-3.5): Pacific about as soft a 10-3 as you’ll ever see. 349th in the nation in strength of schedule All 10 wins either against non D1 teams or teams ranked outside the Ken Pom top 220. Only 3 half way respectable teams they’ve played, they lost. Buy low spot for UNLV and Jonah Antonio is expected back. He’ll help Rebels space the floor and prevent defenses from sagging down low.

Alabama/Samford Ov 160.5: Both teams just playing at warp speed of late. Bama 7th in nation in average offensive possession length, Samford not far behind at 28th. Samford an absurd 83.3 possessions in last 3 games. I think we could see 80 possessions here and if we do it should go over.

North Carolina (+12.5): Pretty nice buy low, sell high spot. I think there’s some 2 way market over-reaction here. Zags off the big win at Arizona, Heels 3 straight losses and now the news of Anthony on the shelf. Think opener of 10 was fine and disagree with the line movement. Heels lose but hang around.

Montana (+19): Bit of a letdown spot for Oregon who is off that big weekend win over Michigan in Ann Arbor. Montana has already played road games against Arkansas, Stanford, Washington, and New Mexico so road games against big teams not foreign. Students gone for winter break should minimize home value for Ducks.

Syracuse (-13): Don’t want to over simplify this one but it’s all about 3 point shooting. If you can’t shoot it from 3 against Cuse you’re in big trouble. Oakland is 322nd in the nation at 27.8% from 3 point land. Cuse has lost 4 of last 5 and this is a little bit of a take out your frustration spot. Oakland interior defense also very, very shaky.

Summary: 

Xavier (-15)
Georgia Tech (-4)
UNLV (-3.5)
Alabama/Samford Ov 160.5

North Carolina (+12.5)
Montana (+19)
Syracuse (-13)

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