Friday: 0-0, (0.00%)
November: 74-72-1, (50.68%)
December: 28-27-1, (50.90%)
Season: 102-99-2, (50.74%)
Sides: 52-51-2, (50.49%)
Totals: 50-48, (51.02%)
Overall: 102-99-2, (50.74%)
Wanted to make sure I got this posted tonight with the massive Saturday slate ahead. No time for full write ups but I did include a few quick thoughts on each play. If any questions about a specific game ask on Twitter and I’ll do my best to get to it…
Oregon (+3.5): I like this Michigan team but tough matchup here. Pritchard can keep Simpson under control and in a tight game like this I think the Altman/Juwan coaching edge means a little more.
Houston Baptist/Rice Ov 173: I know this total is high but with very good reason. Houston Baptist in a class of their own in terms of pace, beyond fast. Rice more than happy to play that style too. Might flirt with 85 possessions. Absurd
Army/Buffalo Ov 156.5: Buffalo #4 in average offensive possession length and Army not far behind at #4. Pace wise can’t ask for much more. 80 possessions very possible. Unless offensive efficiency is awful it should cash.
Tennessee (-6): Still far from sold on Memphis on the road. Lucky to win at UAB last weekend. Barnes will slow the pace and force them to score in the half court. Vols by double digits.
Eastern Illinois/Milwaukee Un 138: Both offenses well below average (EIU 209, Milwaukee 259 in OE) and both playing slow. EIU 211th in average offensive possession length, Milwaukee at 199th. See more of a 66-63 type rock fight.
Northern Colorado (-4.5): Wyoming already miserable team but now looks like they’ve lost Hendricks for a few games too. Already horrendous offense team loses arguably it’s best weapon. They might not crack 50.
Central Arkansas/Pepperdine Ov 162.5: Another one where the pace should be wild and very possible to hit 80+ possessions. Central Arkansas 6th in adjusted tempo and Pepperdine 22nd in average offensive possession length.
Vanderbilt (+2.5): It’s been a fun run for Liberty but they’ve done it against the 351st ranked schedule in the nation. Reality check here. Vandy more size, better athletes, and they should win. I’ll opt for the 2.5 instead though.
Saint Mary’s/California Un 126: Don’t want to over simplify this one but have two coaches who both play slow as hell. Saint Mary’s snail slow as usual and Fox has brought glacier pace from Georgia with him out west. Might not hit 60 possessions.
Radford (+4): Duquesne off to a great start but much like Liberty against an awful schedule. 326th toughest in the nation. Duquesne over valued now and defensive metrics in particular are screaming for regression.
Alabama (+10.5): Bama will be pedal to the medal from the time they get off the bus. Warp speed tempo. Wouldn’t be shocking to see Penn State a little flat off the Maryland win/court storm.
Air Force (-4.5): Should be a pretty ugly game but the Air Force offense is actually pretty solid. Denver defense too inept to take advantage of how bad the Air Force defense is.
Georgia/Arizona State Ov 156: Neither team with any desire to slow the tempo and not much faith in either defense. UGA defense still very shaky and ASU defense due for some regression. Likely looking at a shootout.
Old Dominion (+15): Some buy low, sell high involved here. Illinois in let down spot after big win over Michigan. Old Dominion probably a bit under valued now after 6 straight losses. They could hang around.
Houston Baptist/Rice Ov 173
Army/Buffalo Ov 156.5
Eastern Illinois/Milwaukee Un 138
Northern Colorado (-4.5)
Central Arkansas/Pepperdine Ov 162.5
Saint Mary’s/California Un 126
Air Force (-4.5)
Georgia/Arizona State Ov 156
Old Dominion (+15)