10
DEC
2019

NCAAB 12/10

comment : 0

Monday: 0-0, (0.00%)

November: 74-72-1, (50.68%)
December: 23-23-1, (50.00%)
Season: 97-95-2, (50.52%)

Sides: 49-50-2, (49.49%)
Totals: 48-45, (51.61%)
Overall: 97-95-2, (50.52%)

No plays for me with the limited slate yesterday and off a 6-4 showing on Sunday so trying to get a little something put together. Hovering around 50% is not what I had in my mind this season but plenty of time to get my numbers where I like. Here’s what I’ve got for Tuesday… 

Penn State (PK): A very tough spot tonight for the undefeated Terps as they head to State College to take on the Nittany Lions. Maryland is coming off a win over Illinois where they trailed by I believe as many as 18 before storming back to win by a point. This will be their 6th game in 11 days and Penn State is chomping at the bit for a chance at them. The main issue the Terps will have in this one is containing Stevens. Morsell and Wiggins are both good defenders but in this case both too small to handle Stevens. Stevens checks in at 6’8″, 225, and a very well rounded player. He’s got 2-3 and 25 pounds on both Morsell or Wiggins. It’s possible Scott will see some time on him but that’s a hell of an ask from a Freshman playing in his first college road game. Another massive aspect to this game will be how Smith handles things down low. He’ll be matched up with Watkins most of the night but I assume will also be forced to cheat and help on Stevens as he’s abusing whoever tries to check him. If Smith gets into foul trouble which he has a tendency to do that hurts a Maryland team that doesn’t have many reliable big men. Ultimately I think that’s where Penn State ends up taking control of this game. On the perimeter I think the Nittany Lions guards are physical enough to make life tough on Cowan. 95% of the time Maryland plays they have the far superior athletes, tonight Penn State will be right there with them on that front. When the dust settles Penn State wins by 6-8

Notre Dame (-20): Coming off back to back losses this feels like a take out your frustration spot for Notre Dame and they’ve got the perfect opponent to beat up on. Lowly Detroit comes to town and this year they are 0-5 on the road losing by an average of 22.6 points per game. The talent level is low, the offense is well below average, and the defense is one of the worst in the country, and on top of all that Notre Dame will force them into a game they don’t want to play. What I mean by that of course is the tempo. Detroit likes to play fast and Brey is notorious for forcing teams like that into a slow it down, half court style game. For the Irish it starts with Mooney and the truth is there’s really nobody on the Detroit roster who can guard him. In general this Notre Dame offense is due for an explosion. They are running good stuff, protecting the ball well, and getting open looks, sadly they just aren’t making nearly enough of them. They are 4th in the nation in turnover percentage and 255th in effective FG% which pretty much sums up the offensive woes. Guys like Laszewski, Gibbs, Pflueger, and even Mooney are playing below their normal levels and facing a defense that ranks 333rd in defensive efficiency should be the perfect medicine to get them back on track. On the other end the Detroit offense is a one man show with Davis. His usage rates are among the highest in the nation and if you can just keep him under control their offense is toast. He’ll still probably get his points but if it’s something like 24 points on 9 for 23 from the field with 6 TO’s then Notre Dame will take it. This one has blowout written all over it.

Nevada/BYU Un 153.5: I like both of these offenses but I don’t think the tempo or possessions are there to justify a total this high. We all know Alford likes to run and it’s no surprise he’s brought that style with him to Nevada. Their offense is fast at 15.8 seconds per possession, but defensively they force long possessions at 17.7 seconds which is 240th in the nation. On the other side BYU’s average offensive possession length is 17.9 seconds which is 242nd in the nation. So at least when BYU has the ball it’s pretty safe bet we aren’t going to get that many quick shots. With a total this high you need both teams looking to run to get into the mid 150’s unless the offensive efficiency is very, very good. In this game for both teams that means shooting it from deep. The Cougars are one of the most 3 point happy teams in the nation and Nevada has been doing a great job defending the 3 point line. Opponents only shoot 27.7% from 3 against the Pack which is 30th lowest in the nation. They also only allow 28% of their opponents to come from 3 point land which is 259th in the nation. Nevada has their issues down low but they have plenty of athletic wings and guards that make life on the perimeter tough. It’s likely the Nevada offense runs into the same type problems their defense will create. Just like BYU, Nevada loves to shoot it from 3, but just like Nevada, BYU defends the 3 point line very well. The BYU defense allows only 29.2% shooting from 3 and just 22.2% of their opponents points from 3, that ranks 336th in the nation. At the end of the day both defenses are vulnerable inside but neither offense is built to take advantage of it. Couple that with a low 70’s tempo and I don’t see how this one gets to the number.

Summary: 

Penn State (PK)
Notre Dame (-20)
Nevada/BYU Un 153.5

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