Yesterday: 3-2, (60.00%)
Season: 32-38-1, (45.71%)
Sides: 15-19-1, (44.11%)
Totals: 17-19, (47.22%)
Overall: 32-38-1, (45.71%)
A small winning day yesterday at 3-2 and another baby step back in the right direction. Season numbers still shaky but the reality is after the slow start I had it’s going to take a little bit to dig out of the hole, just is what it is. I’m confident as ever that I’ll do it though and hopefully the next little step comes today, here’s what I’m going with…
Seattle (+18): Seattle is a team I was optimistic about coming into the season and while they’ve had a very slow start I do think they are better than what the market currently does. More than anything else they are due for some massive positive shooting regression, especially from 3 point land. As a team they are only at 21.8% from 3 and their best 3 point shooters (Means, Jones and Brown) are all shooting well below their normal levels. Another aspect of this matchup that shouldn’t be ignored is Ole Miss ability to force turnovers. Much of their defensive success is due to 13th in the nation at forcing turnovers. For as badly as Seattle has played in the early going they are protecting the ball quite well. Brown handles the ball a TON and despite the already mentioned early season shooting struggles he’s taking care of the ball very well. Lastly we have a bit of a look ahead angle in play for the Rebels as they head to Memphis on Saturday. It’s certainly possible they have an eye looking ahead to that game and that only helps Seattle. At the end of the day the combo of market over-reaction, Seattle positive shooting regression, Seattle not turning the ball over much, and the Ole Miss look ahead spot is plenty enough to get me on the big road dog.
Detroit/Wyoming Ov 132.5: I know playing Wyoming overs right about now isn’t the most comfortable thing in the world but I’m going to give it a go here. Every game the Cowboys have played this year has seen the total drop and the under take big money. This one is no different and now all the way down to 132.5 I’m going to take a shot at the over. Offensively Wyoming has been as bad as you can be and it’s one of the worst kept secrets in college basketball right now. However in their last game we saw a bit of a change. Instead of being horrible and snail slow on top of it, they actually pumped up the pace and played Oregon State to 73 possessions. Even with that game Oregon State is only 256th in the nation in adjusted tempo, so getting a 73 possession game out of them is really saying something. I think Edwards has come to the realization that his offense simply isn’t good enough to score much in slow it down, half court sets. Due to that he might as well have them try to get out in transition and at least try to find easy buckets. Tonight they have a matchup that just might work. Detroit is 337th in the nation in defensive efficiency and their average defensive possession is 43rd fastest in the nation. If Edwards decides to increase the tempo again tonight Detroit will offer little to no resistance. I don’t trust the Cowboys enough to take them but with a total this low even 67-68 possessions should be able to get it over and I think it’s very realistic we see 70.
Pepperdine/USC Ov 149.5: This play is mostly about the pace Pepperdine is currently playing at. USC pace wise is about as expected so nothing much to report there but it’s Pepperdine that is really doing their best to speed up tempo. Their number of possessions per game won’t wow you, but when you consider their opponents it’s far more impressive. The Waves played to 71 possessions against snail slow California, 70 possessions against UC Irvine who is well slower than D1 average, and 72 possessions against Abilene Christian who again is well, well slower than D1 average. In their one game against an opponent that actually has an adjusted tempo that’s above average they played to 77 possessions against Cal State Northridge. Tonight they face a USC that’ll be more than happy to run with them and I feel the 73 possessions Ken Pom projects is a bit on the low side. I could see 76-77 possessions in this game and not be surprised at all. As a team Pepperdine is a very respectable 73rd in offensive efficiency and while I don’t think they win, I do think they give the USC defense some trouble. On the other side I’m perfectly happy taking my chances with USC’s offense which is ranked 34th in efficiency against the Pepperdine defense which checks in at 175th defensively.
I also have a few others but out of time for write ups. The complete card is listed below.
Detroit/Wyoming Ov 132.5
Pepperdine/USC Ov 149.5
Radford/Northwestern Un 131