NCAAB 11/14

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Yesterday: 4-4, (50.00%)
Season: 16-24-1, (40.00%)

Sides: 7-15-1, (31.81%)
Totals: 9-9, (50.00%)
Overall: 16-24-1, (40.00%)

A 4-4 day on Wednesday going 4-1 on totals and 0-3 on sides. The good news is the totals are starting to round back into form but my sides are just a mess at the moment. Just have to keep trusting my numbers, trusting what I’m doing, and trust that things will turn around, which I truly believe they will. Anyways moving right along to the Thursday card here’s what I’m going with…

Penn State (+2.5): This line keeps moving towards Georgetown and I disagree with it. I probably would have passed at PK but now getting 2.5 I’ll make a play. Both teams have had two cupcake opponents to open the season so we really haven’t learned too much about either at this point. One area I like in this game is the Penn State size edge in the backcourt. The Jones’s (Myreon and Curtis) are both 6’4″ as is Brockington and I expect them to make life difficult for the Hoya guards Akinjo and McClung who are only 6’1″ and 6’2″ respectively. The biggest challenge for the Lions will be handling Yurtseven who has burst on the scene transferring in from NC State. He’s had two big games but again against weak competition. He’s a legit 7 footer but he isn’t terribly physical. Watkins and Harrar will be giving up some size but they’ll bang with him and make his life difficult in the paint. It isn’t realistic to totally shut him down, but slowing him down and keeping him in check will go a long way towards winning this game especially if the size advantage in the backcourt plays out in Penn State’s favor as I expect. At the end of the day I see this as a coin flip game and am happy to get 2.5.

Central Conn/Arizona State Ov 150: Last year Central Connecticut took a massive jump in tempo going from 329th in adjusted tempo all the way to 101st. Now this year it looks like they might make another jump, as through two games they are up to 60th. In their opener they played to 74 possessions against a Hartford team that’s always well slower than average in terms of tempo. Then against St. Johns who loves to run they not so surprisingly put up a warp speed 83 possessions. Here they do battle with ASU and if Marshall decides he wants to keep his team running Hurley and the Sun Devils sure as hell aren’t going to argue with it. The Devils have been going faster and faster since Hurley came to town and now he has a team he’s clearly willing to turn loose. In a game like this where they should be in complete control I expect much of the game to resemble a pick up game with both teams jacking quick shots. Earlier I mentioned that 83 possession game when Central Conn was blown out by St. Johns and I could something very similar to that in this one. Ken Pom projects 77 possessions but I more realistically see 80-82 or so. If I can get that many possessions I’ll take my chances the points come along with it.


Penn State (+2.5)
Central Connecticut Ov 150

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