Yesterday: 3-4, (42.86%)
Season: 12-20-1, (37.50%)
Sides: 7-12-1, (36.84%)
Totals: 5-8, (38.46%)
Overall: 12-20-1, (37.50%)
Will be the first to admit I’m not capping anywhere near my normal level right now, but I’m sure as hell not catching any breaks either. Last night was sitting at 3-3 with UNLV/Cal as my last play of the night. That play was going to determine either a winning or losing night. The game is heading towards an easy under and then sure enough ends up going to OT where it goes over the total. That right there is the difference between 3-4 or 4-3. Simple as that. As I always say will keep plugging along but at some point these breaks have to start evening out. My lucky wins vs. bad beats breakdown is pretty ugly right now. Anyways, here’s what I have for Wednesday…
LSU/VCU Ov 142: This one is mostly about pace. Ken Pom projects it at 74 possessions but I see it at 76-77 or so. As a team VCU’s adjusted tempo is 167th but that’s in large part to their average defensive possession being 19.6 seconds, which is 335th longest in the nation. Offensively they are quite quick at 15.2 seconds per possession which ranks 45th. LSU is just fast all around. 17th in average offensive possession length and 74th in defensive possession length, and this year they picked up right where they left off last year. In their opener the Tigers put up 80 possessions against Bowling Green and it’ll be tough for anyone to slow them down this season. That’s the challenge the Rams will have in this one. Even last year against snail slow Saint Mary’s, LSU was able to get to 73 possessions. VCU is off just a 62 possession game against North Texas who is one of the slowest teams in the country so you have to figure they’ll jump at the chance to be able to get out and run again. If both teams are getting up and down to the court the way I expect and the possessions are there I’ll take my chances the offensive efficiency is good enough to get this thing over the number.
Marquette/Purdue Un 142.5: This play is mostly about Purdue looking like they are really going out of their way to slow things down this season. In their most recent game they only went 64 possessions against Texas and before that only 71 against Green Bay despite Green Bay being one of the fastest tempo teams in the country. It seems without his veteran backcourt of Edwards and Kline that Painter has slowed the pace a bit. Last year Purdue was slower than average tempo wise but this year it’s even slower than that as noted above. Their average offensive possession is 20.7 seconds which is 337th in the nation. On the other side Marquette checks in with an adjusted tempo of 98 but that’s due in large part to their average defensive possession being 15.4 seconds which is 47th in the nation. If Purdue is hell bent on going snail slow (which so far it seems they are) then their average offensive possession is certainly going to be longer than that. Offensively Marquette is slightly above average at 128th fastest offensive possession but nothing crazy. Yes both teams are very solid offensively but at the end of the day I’ve got two damn good defenses and if this thing ends up at 67-68 possessions or so I see them having trouble going over this number.
Green Bay/New Mexico Ov 162: I see this one having track meet written all over it. We’ll start with the basics, both teams want to run, run, run. Green Bay is 18th in the nation averaging 14.2 seconds per offensive possession and New Mexico isn’t far behind at 14.5 seconds which checks them in at 24th. Ken Pom already projects a whopping 77 possessions in this game and I still think that might even be low. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see this thing end with 80-82 possessions or so. In their opener Green Bay was held to only 71 possessions against a Purdue team that I mentioned in my other write up is really going out of their way to slow things down this season. Green Bay was so frustrated to be forced into that type of game that in their next one they played an insane 95 possessions in a glorified scrimmage against Wisconsin Stout. Point being if they are given the chance to play fast they’ll do it, and New Mexico is the perfect opponent for it. Not to over simplify but both teams want to run and neither is going to object to an all star game type of pace. Ultimately if this game ends up at 80 ish possessions which I fully expect it will then I’ll happily take my chances on it going over 162.
Grand Canyon (+12): A little bit of a buy low/sell high spot here. Aztecs off a blowout win over Texas Southern followed by a nice road win over BYU. Grand Canyon off a very odd loss Davenport and then a 12 point loss against Illinois. I only make this line 9 and I think there’s some two way over-reaction in this current number. Grand Canyon has played tough road games before with varying degrees of success but my point is they won’t be rattled by hitting the road and playing in front of a big crowd. Last year they played at South Dakota State only losing by 5, lost at San Diego by only 3, and at New Mexico State by only 2. They’ve come out the gate a bit slow but there’s still some talent there. Now in the mix are transfers Lorenzo Jenkins from Colorado State, and Isiah Brown from Northwestern to go with Carlos Johnson who came in last year from Washington. Those 3 along with a very solid freshman PG Jovan Blacksher form a pretty nice core for this team. I also expect a little bit of offensive regression from SDSU who in the early going is shooting over 40% from 3 point land. In short through 2 games SDSU isn’t as good as they’ve shown and Grand Canyon isn’t as bad as they’ve shown. Aztecs should win but this feels like a single digit game to me.
I also have a few others but out of time for write ups. The complete card is listed in the summary below…
LSU/VCU Ov 142
Marquette/Purdue Un 142.5
Green Bay/New Mexico Ov 162
Grand Canyon (+12)