NCAAB 11/11

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Yesterday: 1-3, (33.00%)
Season: 8-14, (36.36%)

Sides: 5-8, (38.46%)
Totals: 3-6, (33.33%)
Overall: 8-14, (36.36%)

Rough day yesterday and no excuses to be made it’s been a disgusting start to the season. I’ve been around a long time, this isn’t my first bad start to a season and it won’t be my last. Will just keep it moving and trust that things will start to regress back towards my normal level. That said back at it today and I do have write ups with my plays. This is what I’m going with…

Elon (+23): Ken Pom currently projects Elon at 333 and while they’ll definitely be bad I don’t think they’ll be THAT bad. I actually think the roster might even be slightly improved with Sheffield transfering in from Stanford coming in and some youngsters who I think could be better than people expect. I also am optimistic on Schrage who now steps in as head coach. He’s certainly paid his dues with stops at Duke, Ohio State, Butler, Indiana as an assistant over the years and I think he’ll end up being a  upgrade over Matheny who was starting to run this thing into the ground. As far as Georgia Tech goes Ken Pom projects them to jump nearly 60 spots from 123 up to about 60. Just about the entire roster is back from last year so while a mild improvement is perfectly reasonable to expect I don’t see them taking the leap that the market currently seems they will. It’s also a weird situational spot for the Yellow Jackets as this will be their only game in a 15 day stretch. It’s not always easy getting a team from a power conference like the ACC pumped up to a play a squad from the CAA. In their first two games Elon has averaged 79 possessions and that’s an interesting element for Georgia Tech to deal with as they don’t like to run much. There’s little doubt they’ll be able to emerge with a win but this is a spot where I think Elon hangs around and ends up losing in the mid teens or so.

Saint Mary’s (-17.5): This is just a terrible opponent for Winthrop to deal with. They love to play at a very fast tempo and if that’s your style Saint Mary’s is about the last team you want to deal with. Year after year the Gaels are among the slowest 2 or 3 teams in the nation in adjusted tempo. They’ll slow it down to snail speed and force Winthrop to score in the half court which is much tougher for them than being able to score in transition. It also doesn’t help matters that Winthrop doesn’t have an answer for either Ford or Fitts who form maybe the best 1-2 punch of any mid-major team in the country. Ford himself is turning into one of the best guards in the country. Not one of the best mid-major guards, but just one of the best guards period. He should have his way tonight as I don’t see what Winthrop can do with him. To put it simply, Jones is too small and Hale is too slow. They don’t really have an answer for Fitts either. Claxton and Ferguson are too thin and their other bigs aren’t quick enough. At the end of the day them being forced into a slower game and not having an answer for the two best players on the court is too much to overcome. This one could get really ugly


Elon (+23)
Saint Mary’s (-17.5)

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