World Series (Series play) 10/23

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A nice winner with the Nats last night which runs my playoff record to 10-6, +10.68 units. I still might mix in some single game plays the rest of the way but for now I’m switching gears and taking a look at the series price. Here’s what I’m going with…

Astros to win series (-110) Risking 3.3 to win 3: To me this line has shifted far too much after last nights game. I was happy to cash the Nats last night but man oh man did they dodge some bullets. Their pitchers threw 187 pitches and allowed 15 base runners in 9 innings. As the series goes on I think that kind of relentless pressure from the Houston offense is eventually going to pay off. To be frank I think very little of the Nats bullpen and if the Astros can keep jacking up pitch counts on the starters and get into that bullpen by the middle innings I see them having some big time success. On the other side the Astros bullpen lately has been excellent. Harris, Smith, Osuna and Pressly gives them 4 guys I trust in big spots. That’s honestly 4 more trustworthy RP’s than I see with the Nats. Lineup wise I also still give a clear edge to the Astros so really it’s as simple as this… the Nats need their SP’s to work deep into games and put up big outings. That’s their path to winning this thing. It’s clear the Astros know the way to beat them is to get into that bullpen as early and often as possible, that’s the game within the game in this series. I think they can do it and from there it’s a matter of when not if they start doing major damage to the Doolittle, Rodney, Hudson, Rainey types. Let’s keep in mind the Astros also lost game 1 at home the Yankees and from there ran off 4 of the next 5 to take the series in 6. At the end of the day I still like Houston to win the series and to me -110 is about 25 cents short of where the line should be.

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