30
OCT
2019

World Series Game 7 Play

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Before I get into my play on tonights game I’ll briefly go over where we stand on my series play for whoever tailed that one. I took the Astros at -110 after the game 1 loss at 3.3 units to win 3. With the game tonight hovering around the Astros as -135 favorites I’ll just let that one ride and hope for the best. I wouldn’t play the Astros at the current market price, but I can’t complain about sitting on -110 when they are favored by 25 more cents. On that note, go Astros.

As far as tonights game, here’s what I’m going with…

Nationals/Astros Ov 7.5 (-110) Risking 2.2 to win 2 (Scherzer/Greinke): It’s easy to look at this game, see the two big name pitchers and just assume that we’re headed for a pitchers duel, I however don’t think that’ll be the case. We’ll start on the Astros side with Zack Greinke who has been mediocre at best throughout the playoffs. In his 4 starts he’s only worked a total of 18.2 innings and done it with a 5.30 ERA. He’s had a hell of a career and is probably a hall of famer but at 36 years old he’s finally starting to show his age a bit and his stuff is very average. They’ll be a quick hook behind him tonight if he doesn’t have it and my guess is Jose Urquidy would be first out of the bullpen. One way or another the Astros need to get it to the trio of Harris, Smith and Osuna. Those 3 are really the only reliable bullpen options they have right now, and with Urquidy working on 3 days rest he’s a bit of a wild card if he has to chew up some of the middle innings. On the other side we have Max Scherzer and again just because he’s Max Scherzer doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk to deal tonight. Back in game 1 he labored through 5 of the toughest innings I’ve ever seen. He threw a whopping 112 pitches in 5 innings and looked like he dumped about 10 pounds of sweat on the mound while doing so. As far as the results he somehow escaped only allowing 2 runs despite putting on 8 baserunners. After him the Nats don’t have a ton that would scare the Astros. Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin will be available but both were hit hard by Houston over the weekend in DC so they’ll be no surprises there. After that you’ve got a very ho-hum bullpen with guys like Rodney, Hudson, Rainey and Doolittle… again none of which are exactly shut down relievers. At the end of the day we’ve had a hard fought series and both teams have to find their way to 27 outs with pitchers who are limping to the finish line. I think both offenses find some success and we could end with a 6-4, 6-5 type of game.

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