04
OCT
2019

NCAAF Week 6 Plays

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Week 5: 2-4-1, (33.33%)
Season: 18-17-1, (51.42%)

Sides: 10-13-1, (43.47%)
Totals: 8-4, (66.66%)
Overall: 18-17-1, (51.42%)


Just one of those weeks last week. 2-4-1 on a card that I truly feel like should have went 4-3. Air Force (-18.5) led 41-10 with 4 mins left and somehow, someway ended up a loser. Then Saturday Liberty (-7) led 17-3 before New Mexico scored a garbage time TD with under a minute left. Right there 2 games that should have been wins turned into a loss and a push. With it a winning week became a losing one just like that. I’ve been around a long time and these things happen but that doesn’t make it any less frustrating when it does. Nothing to do but keep moving forward and battling, here’s what I have for week 6…


Utah State (+27.5): This line has gotten out of hand. It opened at 25, briefly went down a point and then has shot back up and now is at 27.5. Personally I make it 23.5 so at 28 I’m going to make a play on the Aggies. They don’t get a ton of attention out in the MWC but Utah State is a damn good team and has a future pro at QB with Jordan Love. Not only is he a future pro but he could end up a 1st round pick. Probably one of the best kept secrets in College Football is how good Love is. Yes LSU is going nuts this year but I think this line is a bit inflated and it’s a good sell high spot to go against them. It’s also worth noting that LSU has a big game with Florida next week so it’s reasonable to think they could already have an eye looking forward to that one.

Georgia Tech (+10.5): A very tricky spot for North Carolina and I disagree with the line movement that has pushed this thing from 8.5 to 10. We all know UNC nearly pulled off the upset of the season in that one point loss to Clemson and now they have the challenge of trying to bounce back from that. Coming that close to such a big win and falling short is just devastating mentally. For as ugly as that 24-2 score looks last week GT was only outgained 322-305 and I actually left their power rating unaffected by the loss. The opener of 8.5 under normal circumstances was a fair line, but I don’t see these as normal circumstances. That plus the movement to 10 is enough to have on the on the Jackets as double digit home dogs.

Troy/Missouri Ov 66: Not too much to this one really, we’ve got 2 of the top 5 teams in the nation in plays run per game. Missouri is 1st at 87 per game and Troy is 5th at 84. They fall under the radar out in the Sun Belt but Troy is averaging over 40 points and 500 yards per game. Defensively they are a mess and have already given up 47 points or more twice. Barker is a very solid QB and if they fall behind as expected he’s capable of putting up points as Troy falls into pass mode. This will be the worst pass defense Bryant sees the rest of the season. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them open things up a bit more to boost his confidence heading back into SEC play. I see something like a 48-24 Missouri win.

Oklahoma/Kansas Un 67.5: The main reason I’m going under here is I simply don’t think the volume of plays is enough to justify a total in the high 60’s. Oklahoma is 118th in the nation at 63.3 plays per game, and Kansas is 129th (out of 130) at just 59. Also with a big game at Texas next week there’s no reason for Oklahoma to get too crazy in this one. They know they can roll through Kansas with their eyes closed and I expect by the 2nd half they are deep into their bench. Kansas is a run heavy team to begin with so I expect them to try to keep it on the ground, especially early, to limit Oklahoma’s offensive possessions. Should still be a bloodbath but I don’t see the scoring getting too out of hand. A 48-10 type win for Oklahoma seems about right.

UTEP (-1.5): It’s very unusual to see UTEP as a favorite against a fellow FBS team but that just speaks to how ugly things are right now for UTSA. Frank Harris is still out at QB and without him this team goes from bad to worse. The weakness of UTEP’s defense is against the pass but Narcisse isn’t good enough to take advantage. His numbers this year are absolutely horrid and he might be worst FBS QB to start in a game on Saturday, he’s truly that bad. On the other side the UTSA defense is 129th in the nation against the run and that’s trouble against a UTEP team that runs it about 60% of the time. FBS wins are few and far between for UTEP and if they can’t get one here then who knows when the next one will be.

Kent State/Wisconsin Un 59: I’ve gotta say I don’t agree with the line movement here that’s pushed this total up a few points from it’s open. Both teams are run heavy (Wisconsin nearly 60%, Kent State about 54%) and that will keep the clock moving. Both teams barely average 200 yards per game passing and with that’s expected to be bad weather those numbers are likely to be even lower in this one. Factor in Wisconsin having Michigan State on deck and you probably get a pretty vanilla game plan so they aren’t showing the Spartans too much. There is also some bad weather on the forecast which only helps the under more. I’m sure Wisconsin rolls but I just can’t see this one getting up into the 60’s. Something like 41-7 Badgers feels about right. 

Michigan State (+20): It just feels weird as hell to even by typing Michigan State +20. Twenty freaking points for Michigan State? Now I’m well aware of how good Ohio State has been this year but as a result this line feels 4-5 points inflated. I make this line 15.5 and outside of a 10-7 loss to Arizona State last month Michigan State really hasn’t done anything to make me lower my overall rating of them. Ohio State I’ll concede I’ve raised up a few points but I haven’t adjusted as much as it seems the market has. The stats for the Buckeyes are gaudy as hell but those numbers have been accumulated against a very weak schedule and this should be their toughest test of the season so far. I see a 31-20 type win for Ohio State. 

Summary: 

Utah State (+27.5)
Georgia Tech (+10.5)
Troy/Missouri Ov 66
Oklahoma/Kansas Un 67.5
UTEP (-1.5)
Kent State/Wisconsin Un 59
Michigan State (+20)

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