31
OCT
2019

NCAAF Week 10 Plays

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Week 9: 1-5, (16.66%)
Season: 26-29-1, (47.27%)

Sides: 13-18-1, (41.93%)
Totals: 13-11, (54.16%)
Overall: 26-29-1, (47.27%)

A few bad breaks along the way but I won’t deny that last week overall was just awful. By far my worst week of the year and as a result I’m at the lowest point I’ve been all season. Nobody ever said this was easy but instead of crying about it I simply need to bounce back. No time for full write ups this week but I do have a few quick points on each play…

Middle Tenn St/Charlotte Un 65: This one has shot from 61 to 65 and I don’t see why. Charlotte is 125th out of 130 FBS teams in plays per game. Middle Tenn State is only 89th so strictly from a volume standpoint I don’t see enough plays being run here to justify a mid 60’s total. Neither team pass happy, clock should be moving. Both offenses respectable but neither scare me. I see 31-28 or so. 

Maryland (+21): Think this line movement has gotten out of hand. Opened at 17/17.5 and now shot up to 21. I make the line 17 so I think the opener was actually just fine. Probably a bit of overreaction to Michigan stomping of Notre Dame as well as Terps being dismantled by Gophers. Also a clear let down, go through the motions kind of game for the Wolverines.

Tulsa/Tulane Ov 60: Happy to get involved with a Tulsa over in a game I do expect them to fall behind. They are 2nd in the nation at 85.6 plays per game and in their last 3 they’ve kicked it up even further to 92.3 per game. If they fall behind it’ll be warp speed and this one should really open up. Tulane more than capable of putting up big points. They’ve scored 38 or more in 4 of last 5. Feels like a shootout.

UNLV (+9): I probably should have played this one when it was at 10 and I nearly did. Once it dropped down to 7.5 I was going to pass, but now that it’s back to 9 I’m not going to pass again. Rams been playing better of late but probably shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against much of anyone. Oblad continuing to improve for the Rebels. Offense far more balanced now than a month or so ago.

Northwestern/Indiana Ov 43.5: I know it isn’t easy to pull the trigger on the over in a Northwestern game but I think this has dropped too low. I also like that Northwestern is 33rd in plays run per game, and even Indiana is above average in pace too at 60th in plays per game. Hoosiers offense been looking very strong of late and their defense is exploitable. See a 31-21 type game.

Utah State (-3.5): A little bit of buy low, sell high in play here. I still like this Utah State team but after two clunkers in their last 3 games (against Air Force and LSU) the market seems to be down on them a bit. Nice rebound spot for them. On the end perhaps some overreaction to BYU win over Boise a few weeks ago. Not sure BYU has quite enough fire power offensively. I see an Aggies win something like 31-20.

TCU/Oklahoma State Ov 59.5: Another one where I disagree with the market. This line has dropped from 64.5/65 down to 59.5 and that’s enough for me to hop on the over. TCU 19th in the nation in plays per game and Oklahoma State even faster at 13th. Sanders volatile but no denying he’s a playmaker. Duggan not flashy but very solid. Both teams should move the ball and the volume of plays should be there too.

Washington (+3.5): I only made this line 1.5 and with it crossing the all important 3 I’ll be on the Huskies as a home dog. I do feel some slight overreaction to how well Utah is playing and that Washington has lost 2 of 3. No slight on the Utes at all, they are a damn good team. I just see this one as close throughout and in such a game a FG plus the hook in your back pocket is huge.

SMU/Memphis Un 71.5: Two very good offenses with two vastly different approaches in this one. SMU is 3rd in the nation at 84.9 plays per game, but Memphis is all the way down at 116th with only 66.1 plays per game. In this one I look for Memphis to go out of their way to try and slow the tempo and keep the SMU offense off the field as much as possible. Obviously both teams will still get theirs but 71.5 seems a bit high. I’m looking at a 35-28 ish Memphis win.

Summary:

Middle Tenn State/Charlotte Un 65
Maryland (+21)
Tulsa/Tulane Ov 60
UNLV (+9)
Northwestern/Indiana Ov 43.5
Utah State (-3.5)
TCU/Oklahoma State Ov 59.5
Washington (+3.5)
SMU/Memphis Un 71.5

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