22
OCT
2019

MLB Play 10/22

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Haven’t had much in MLB the last week or so but overall the playoffs have been going quite well. My most recent play was on Houston in game 4 where they won in New York on what I felt was a very flawed line. Back at it tonight as we get the World Series, here’s what I’ve got…

Nationals (+179) Risking 1.27 to win 2.27 (Scherzer/Cole): At this point there are a few things I think we can all agree on. The Astros are pretty clearly the best team in baseball and Gerrit Cole is pretty clearly the best pitcher on the planet right now. Despite those I’ll be making a play on the Nats with Scherzer on the mound. I haven’t looked back into the history but I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the biggest dog Scherzer has been in his career. I made this line Nats +156 so with 23 cents of value that’s enough for me to make a play. I won’t bother to try and make an argument against Cole or the Astros or try to act like there is a flaw on either of those fronts because there really isn’t. This is about taking a guy who is still very close to the top of his game at a very nice price. Mad Max is working on a 1.80 playoff ERA, an 0.85 WHIP and a 2-0 record. Like I said, he isn’t Cole but he’s still elite. This figures to be a low scoring game so a key error, a bullpen implosion, or anything could lead to a 3-2, 4-3 type win for either team. At the end of the day I just see this as a hard fought pitching battle throughout and in such a game a price like this is simply too high.

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