05
OCT
2019

MLB 10/5

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Couldn’t ask for anything more on Friday as I pulled off the 3-0 sweep. The Braves got it done early, the Twins and Yankees easily went over 8.5 and then late night the Nats pulled off a nice road/dog win to complete the perfect night. Still so much playoff baseball to go but I’ll be the first to admit a day like that was much needed. Moving on here’s what I have for Saturday…

Twins (+169): I think this one is about 20 cents inflated as I make the Twins only a +151 dog. They’ll send Randy Dobnak to the mound and for those who don’t know who the hell that is he’s a late season call up who put up 28 very impressive innings for the Twins. He had a 1.59 ERA, 1.59 BB/9 and a 52.9% ground ball rate. He isn’t going to be a high K guy, but he walks very few and gets a ton of ground balls. In a hitters heaven like Yankee stadium a guy who allows limited walks and limited fly balls is like gold. I’m not saying he’ll completely shut the Yankees down but I do like his chances to keep them under control. For the Yanks it’ll be Masahiro Tanaka on the mound. He had a solid but unspectacular season with an ERA of 4.45 and an xFIP that’s right around that same number at 4.29. His K rate was the lowest it’s been in his career and he isn’t dominant by any stretch. Long story short at this price the Twins are worth a play.

No play in the Rays/Astros game. The Astros are a machine but the problem is everyone knows it and this game is priced correctly. Have to pass.

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