MLB 10/17

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Nothing the last few days in MLB but today with the ALCS getting back going I have a play I feel very good about. Overall been a solid run in the playoffs and hopefully today is more of the same. Here’s what I’ve got…

Astros (+116) Risking 1.37 to win 1.59 (Greinke/Tanaka): In my opinion there is some pretty steep overreaction going on with this line. Less than a week ago in Game 1 this exact same pitching matchup closed with the Astros as a -150 ish favorite depending on the shop. Now today they are +116? A 66 cent difference? Yes I know that game was in Houston and this one is in New York, but a 66 cent difference? It’s just funny to me how quickly the narrative can change. Zack Greinke was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA this year and 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA since joining the Astros. Yet a few ho-hum starts in the playoffs and people act like he’s complete garbage. On the other hand Masahiro Tanaka had a 4.45 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, and the lowest K/9 of his career, yet a nice start in game 1 and all of the sudden he’s a shut down ace? I think we’ve got a ton of recency bias going on here and I prefer to look at a much larger sample size instead of what I’ve seen most recently. If betting were as easy as “oh the last time I saw this guy he was bad. The last time I saw this other guy he was good, so I’m going to bet the guy who was good” we’d all be rich. I don’t care what’s happened in the last week or so… for my money Zack Greinke is a better pitcher than Masahiro Tanaka, period. I also believe that top to bottom the Astros are a better team than the Yankees. To be able to get them at +116 here is excellent value as I actually make this line Astros -112. Obviously no guarantees but in my mind this is a wrong team favored kind of game and I can’t pass on Houston.

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