03
OCT
2019

10/3 MLB

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Braves (-139): It took Dallas Keuchel a little bit to wear off the rust, but now that he has he’s starting to look like the guy he was with the Astros. In his last 9 starts he has a 2.55 ERA and a sky high 62.4% ground ball rate. Given the way baseballs are flying out of ballparks now an elite ground ball guy like Keuchel is so valuable. In those previously mentioned 9 starts he’s gone 53 innings and allowed only 5 HR’s. He’s pitched in big games, he isn’t going to get rattled, and he’s a home where his ERA was 2.74 this year. On the other end we have Miles Mikolas who put up a 5.40 road ERA this year and allowed a whopping 17 HR’s in in 88.1 road innings. I made this line Atlanta -155 and I think they take care of business today.

Nationals (+154): Yes the Dodgers are stacked but if you are going to beat them your best chance to do so is with a left handed pitcher. The Dodgers offense is about 15% better in wRC+ against right handers and that bodes well for left hander Patrick Corbin tonight. It’s easy for a guy like Corbin to get overlooked behind the likes of Scherzer and Strasburg but he put up another solid season. He went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and a 49.5 ground ball rate. In his last 19 starts he allowed 2 ER’s or less 14 times. He pitched at LA in May and went 7 shutout innings allowing only 3 hits. Opposing him will be Walker Buehler who is also excellent, but despite that I only make this line Nationals +136, so at +154 I’m plenty happy to make a play on the road dog.

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