Week 4: 3-4, (42.86%)
Season: 16-13, (55.17%)
Sides: 9-10, (47.36%)
Totals: 7-3, (70.00%)
Overall: 16-13, (55.17%)
First losing week of the season going just 3-4 in week 4, but still over 55% for the year so you aren’t going to see me complaining. Sides is where I’d expect improvement moving forward and I’ll be first to admit I’m not going to continue hitting totals at a 70% clip.
I also want to point out that I’ll be changing gears a bit on my write ups. After a long talk with someone I highly respect I’m going to keep things more concise. To be honest most of what makes a play is simply my numbers vs. what the market has. I trust my numbers and if there is a big enough disagreement between mine and the market I’ll make a play. Not that glamorous or anything but it really is that easy. All that said, here’s what I’m going with for week 5 with a few quick notes on each.
Air Force (-19.5): Last week I would’ve made this line AFA -23, and I think the market is overreacting to SJSU’s upset win at Arkansas. They essentially won the turnover battle 7-1 and the amount of breaks they caught defensively are unsustainable. Now they have to come back on a short week and deal with an Air Force team that running the triple option is difficult to prep for. Throw in the let down angle from a surprise road win over an SEC team and all signs point towards a blowout. I left my Air Force numbers unchanged after competitive Boise loss.
Georgia Tech (+9): A few weeks ago I had this line at only 4. That loss the Jackets had to Citadel was ugly but not as bad as many realize. It’s tough to get up for Citadel, and with Collins former team (Temple) on deck they came out flat. Of course I did lower my ratings on them but not as much as the market seemed to. Georgia Tech is still transitioning from the triple option to the spread so I feel a bye week is more useful to them than most. Also worth noting the bye gives Collins more time to prep for a Temple roster that he knows very well.
Fresno State/New Mexico State Ov 63: I make this line 67. Both teams off season high in plays run last week. 80+ plays each. NMSU is pass heavy and trending further in that direction as the season goes on. Defensively the Aggies are even worse than expected. Fresno offense looking more dangerous as Reyna continues to improve. Only thing that worries me is possible Fresno blowout which could slow things down. As long as the game stays somewhat competitive I expect the points to keep coming.
Northwestern (+24.5): I think there is some two way overreaction going on with this line. Just last week I’d have made this line 19.5. It opened earlier this week at 21 and after heavy money on the Badgers it’s all the way up to 24.5 and frankly I think that’s just too high. Should be a very slow pace game and likely less possessions than normal. In such a game covering a number like this is even tougher.
Nebraska (+17): Another one where I think the line has gotten out of hand. I made this line 12, it opened 14 and now has shot all the way to 17. Put up or shut up here for the Huskers. If they are back (or at least headed in that direction) they need a solid showing here. Ohio State has been excellent this year but frankly they haven’t faced much schedule wise. This will be their toughest test of the year so far. Not calling for a Nebraska win but I do expect them to hang around.
UCLA/Arizona Un 71: I only made this line 65.5 and I think there’s massive overreaction to that crazy 67-63 win UCLA had over Washington State last week. Before that UCLA hadn’t scored more than 14 points in a game all year. Thompson-Robinson going for 507 yards and 5 TD’s passing one of the biggest anomalies we probably see all season. Nearly played Arizona too but I’ll end up only on the under instead.
Liberty (-7): A few things in play here that get me on Liberty. First and foremost the New Mexico pass defense is absolutely horrid and Liberty throws it about 60% of the time. Should have big success through the air. Also Hugh Freeze is now back on the sideline. He’s coached a game from a hospital bed, from a dental chair, from some sort of platform on the sideline, and now he’s actually back on the sideline and I think that helps the offense a great deal. Calvert has proven over the years he’s capable of putting up big numbers and this feels like one of those 370 yard, 3 or 4 TD kind of games for him. Liberty by double digits.
Air Force (-19.5)
Georgia Tech (+9)
Fresno State/New Mexico State Ov 63
UCLA/Arizona Un 71