NCAAB Yesterday: 1-3, (33.33%) -2.3 Units
NCAAB Season: 84-68-1, (55.26%) +9.2 Units
NCAAB November: 13-10-0, (56.52%) +2.0 Units
NCAAB December: 12-11-1, (52.17%) -0.1 Units
NCAAB January: 48-35-0, (57.83%) +9.5 Units
NCAAB February: 11-12-0, (47.82%) -2.2 Units
Just one of those days on Tuesday. Was looking like I’d escape at 2-2 but maybe my worst beat of the year with New Mexico turned a 2-2 day into a 1-3 one instead. The Lobos were up 6 with a minute left and then melted down about as badly as you can. Combine that with Butler losing in OT, and SDSU falling to Fresno you’ve got an ugly night. Nothing to do but get back on the horse and keep going. Here’s what I have for Wednesday….
Kansas State (+5): A little buy low/sell high here with K State as they hit the road to take on Texas. The Cats have lost 2 straight, a 14 point home loss to Kansas and then a humiliating 38 point road loss to West Virginia. Texas meanwhile is coming off a hard fought come from behind win against their biggest rival, Oklahoma. If you are a situational bettor spots to come much better than this. You’ve got a the letdown angle with Texas and the bounce back angle with Kansas State. Yes the Cats have been awful in their last 2 games but this is still a solid team. Brown and Wade are to me one of the better inside/duos in the conference, Sneed is coming along nicely and now Stokes is starting to work his way back into the rotation. There’s no denying Texas is elite defensively and most of that stems from having Bamba down low. He’s going to be a top 5 pick and his shot blocking/rim protection is truly amazing. Their offense however is 125th in the nation in efficiency and by far worst in the BIG 12. On that end of the floor there’s really nobody who scares you. Osetkowski is their leading scorer but at 40% from the field and 27% from 3 point land he isn’t worrying anyone. Jones was their best offensive player and with him out this offense really struggles. Coleman and Roach are decent players but like I said there just isn’t much firepower with this Horns team. To me the major issue in this game will be Wade. I don’t see how Texas deals with him. He’s way too quick for a guy like Osetkowski and they won’t run Bamba out there on the perimeter with him because he’s so valuable protecting the rim. At the point I also think Brown is a bit too big and strong for a guy like Coleman to handle. Overall I like this match up for K State to begin with and when you factor in the situational angles I outlined earlier there’s more than enough here to justify a play on the Wildcats.
Texas A&M (+7): Everyone is high on Auburn right now and it’s easy to see why. They are 21-2 they’ve won 19 of their last 20 and have now worked their way into the top 10 in the polls. The Aggies however are quietly rounding back into form and are a team I think you need to keep an eye on. There is a ton of talent on this roster and now with all the pieces back together the results are starting to show. They won their last two games by an average of 19.5 per contest and are starting to play like they did when they started the year 11-1. Defensively is where this team is a nightmare to deal with. They are one of the biggest teams in the country and they hit you with size and length pretty much across the board. Hogg, Davis, Williams and Morelos are all 6’9″ or taller and that makes life miserable on opposing offenses. In this game in particular the size advantage for the Aggies is going to be overwhelming. Auburn should get absolutely pummeled on the glass and getting open looks while giving up pretty much 3-4 inches across the board isn’t going to be easy. It’s easy to look at that stretch where A&M went 2-7 and think they aren’t for real. It’s been a weird ride for them though. Aside from Davis and Morelos every other key player has missed 3 to 5 games for one reason or another. Hogg, Williams, Gilder, Wilson and even role guys like Starks and Flagg. Right now everyone is back and to me they look a hell of a lot more like the team that started 11-1 than the one who went 2-7 in a 4 week stretch. This play isn’t really to knock Auburn it’s just with a roster this talented and a defense this elite I’d take 7 with A&M against just about anyone.
Dayton (-8): Dayton right now is 10-12 on the year, 4-6 in the A-10 and ranked 142 in Ken Pom ratings. Right now you might be thinking, who cares? Well if Duquense wins this game it will be their most impressive win of the season. That’s how soft their schedule has been this year and how little I think of their 15-9 record. If you’ve followed my plays this year you know I’ve been picking on Duquesne for a while and just don’t believe in them at all. For most of the year their strength of schedule sat at 351 out of 351 and now it’s risen all the way to 346th out of 351! Sarcasm there of course but you get the idea… don’t let the 15-9 record fool you. Not surprisingly Dayton took a big fall this year. They lost Miller to Indiana and had an army of Seniors graduate last year. Defensively is where they’ve had most of their issues but thanks to Davis and Cunningham the offense is still pretty respectable. The real edge in this game should be down low for Dayton. As a team they shoot 59.7% from 2 point land which is 4th best in the country, while 58.2% of the points Duquense allows are from 2, that’s the 6th highest mark in the nation. Cunningham and Landers should be able to have their way in the paint and in general Dayton should have too much firepower for the Dukes to deal with. Outside of a game this Saturday against Fordham at home I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Duquesne doesn’t win another regular season game this season. Dayton should take care of them by double digits here.