06
FEB
2018

NCAAB February 6th

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NCAAB Yesterday: 0-0, (0.00%) +0.0 Units
NCAAB Season: 83-65-1, (56.08%) +11.5 Units

NCAAB November: 13-10-0, (56.52%) +2.0 Units
NCAAB December: 12-11-1, (52.17%) -0.1 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 48-35-0, (57.83%) +9.5 Units
NCAAB February: 10-9-0, (52.63%) +0.1 Units

Took the last few days off but ready to jump back in there today. Slightly over .500 for the brief month of February so far and hoping to build on that a bit this week. Here’s what I’ve got tonight…

Butler (-3.5):
Xavier to their credit has worked their way into the top 5 but I’m not completely sold. Now of course they are good but I’m not buying this top 5 stuff. To me they are roughly a top 20 squad in terms of power ratings. This week they’ll play road games against Butler and Creighton and I’ll think there’s a good chance they lose both. There’s no denying they have a nice offense but it’s on the defensive end where there is some trouble. As a team they rank 69th in defensive efficiency but to me most concerning is they rank 317th in defensive turnover rate. On top of that they only rank 206th in block shot percentage too. So basically they are a low pressure defense that pretty much lets you get into your sets, run what you want to run, and they don’t protect the rim. While I mentioned I don’t think Xavier is quite as good as their record or ranking I think Butler is better than theirs. They are top 33 in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and while they don’t anything amazingly well they do everything pretty damn well. As usual they are tough at Hinkle where they’ve only lost once this year and with a top 5 team coming to town you know the crowd will be rowdy. Martin leads the way for Butler and he’s a tough match up for Xavier as he’s a bit too strong for Bluiett and too quick for Gates. It’s possible that Mack will play more zone than usual to try and counter that but either way Martin figures to be a problem. Baldwin also figures to be a problem as frankly I don’t think anyone on the Xavier roster is quick enough to stay with him and keep him from getting into the lane. After those two they have some very nice role players with Wideman, Jorgensen, McDermott, Fowler and Baddley all sporting very high efficiency ratings. Overall there’s plenty of firepower on this Bulldogs team and when you combine that with them playing at home and against Xaviers shaky defense I think there’s enough for there for an 8-10 point win.

Northwestern (+1.5): These teams met just last week in what frankly was a disgusting game where they didn’t even combine for 100 points. Michigan came out an 11 point winner in a snail slow 59 possession snoozer. Both teams love to play slow so odds are we get another ugly game here tonight. Michigan pulled away late in the game last week but at the 10 minute mark Northwestern was only down 3. In that game McIntosh and Law combined for only 12 points on 5-18 from the field. Those are two of the Cats most important players and back at home I expect better performances from each of them. Also in that game Michigan only had 5 turnovers. Now I’ll admit the Wolverines are among the best in the nation in turnover rate but even for them 5 turnovers in a game is very low. On the road this year they are averaging roughly 10 turnovers a game which I think is a more realistic number to expect in this rematch tonight. It’s also worth noting that Northwestern has a little bit of a size edge and actually won the rebounding battle 34-28 in the game last week. Overall I think we get a bit more from McIntosh and Law, a few more turnovers for Michigan, a nice home crowd and a little revenge for Northwestern in what would be a mild upset.

New Mexico (PK): Somewhat quietly Boise State has worked their way to a 19-4 record and into the conversation for a possible at large tournament bid. Tonight they’ll deal with a New Mexico team that isn’t anything special, but are still very tough to deal with at the PIT. The Lobos are 7-0 in their last 7 home games winning by an average of 15.4 points per game in that span. Boise is a solid team but this is one of those “how good are you really?” kind of games. These teams met in early January with Boise winning by 28 in a blowout. Now you might be thinking Boise won by 28 a month ago doesn’t that help their cause tonight? I actually think just the opposite. The Lobos know they were embarrassed in that game and you can bet they’ll be looking for revenge here. Further helping matters for the Lobos is the return of Logwood who played 22 minutes Saturday against San Jose State. Logwood is arguably New Mexico’s best player, he’s long, athletic, strong and will probably get the bulk of time against Hutchison who is far and away Boise’s best player. Given the records and the result in the first match up most would figure a Lobo win to be quite the upset. Realistically though with the way they are playing at home and now with Logwood back in the fold I wouldn’t consider a Lobo win surprising in the least.

San Diego State (+3): Taking teams in revenge spots seems to be the order of the night and I’ll stick with that theme by taking SDSU here. A few weeks ago the Aztecs blew a 2nd half double digit lead and lost to a Fresno in a game they frankly had no business at all losing. There were some weird things in that game and most notably of which was Grimes who averages 4.6 points per game coming in off the bench and dropping 15 on the 7-7 from the field. Also there was the fact Fresno was 18-22 from the line while SDSU only went 24-36. The irony there is that SDSU is actually the better FT shooting team on the season. For all the trouble the Aztecs have had this year the offense is actually pretty solid and under Dutcher far more entertaining. Their average length of possession is 44th quickest in the nation and they have 7 players averaging over 8 points a game. Fresno only checks in 142nd in the nation in defensive efficiency so I have very little doubt SDSU should be able to do what they want offensively. It’s on the defensive end they’ll need to step up and coming off only allowing 0.78 PPP on Saturday against Air Force maybe it’s a step in the right direction. Now of course I’ll admit that Air Force is awful but just having some success defensively could be the boost the Aztecs need to turn up the effort and intensity on that end of the floor. The records both overall and in conference will lead you to believe Fresno is the better team here but I truly don’t think that’s the case. SDSU has more talent and the better team. I’ll take my chances with them looking for revenge and 3 points in my back pocket.

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