15
FEB
2018

NCAAB February 15th

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NCAAB Yesterday: 0-2-1, (0.00%) -2.2 Units
NCAAB Season: 97-81-2, (54.49%) +7.9 Units

NCAAB November: 13-10-0, (56.52%) +2.0 Units
NCAAB December: 12-11-1, (52.17%) -0.1 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 48-35-0, (57.83%) +9.5 Units
NCAAB February: 24-25-1, (48.97%) -3.5 Units

Well no excuses from me. Stuck in the middle of my worst week and month of the season right now. 0-6-1 on the week and now under 50% for the month. Season numbers are still solid but I’ve gotta get this back on track. Still grinding, still plugging away, here’s what I’ve got tonight…

Houston (+3): I love this Cincy team and I took/posted a future on them to win it all earlier this week. That said this is tough spot for them in what will be their most difficult game since early February. Yes the Cats have won 16 in a row, and yes I consider them on the best teams in the nation, but tonight will be a very tough challenge. Houston is a very solid 19-5 so far this year and a perfect 12-0 at home. They lost at Cincy a few weeks ago in a game they actually led by 18 points in the first half and we’re tied with 10 minutes to go. Cincy does a lot of things exceptionally well but play offense isn’t one of them. As a team they are 53rd in offensive efficiency which is respectable but nothing to write home about. Yet in that game a few weeks ago they exploded for an uncharacteristic 1.23 PPP. On top of that Gray was only 4-15 from the field for 9 points. Cincy’s defense will get all the attention in this game but the Cougars are no slouches on that end of the floor either. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and 10th in effective FG% defense. For the most part this Houston team will go as Gray goes. He’s their best player, he’s their leader, he’s a Senior, he’s the blood and guts of this team. Coming off that 4-15 showing at Cincy you know he’s going to want to rebound in a big way on his home floor. This is no way a fade of Cincy, I just think you’ll have a very hungry Houston team that’s had this game circled all year more than ready to go. They are undefeated at home, they want revenge, they want to show they are for real. Tonight I think they get it done.

Penn State (-1): If Penn State wants any chance to make the tournament they better win this game tonight. Some will tell you they are on the bubble others will say they need to do some work to even get to the bubble, either way this is a must have game for the Lions. For the most part they’ve taken care of business at home this year with a 13-3 record and that’s what they need to do tonight. The strength of this team is defensively where they check in 23rd in defensive efficiency, 40th in effective FG%, 19th in steal rate and 27th in block rate. They have good size, good athleticism, and really are tough to score against. Tonight obviously the big challenge will be to hold down Bates-Diop who is playing some of the best basketball of anyone in the nation right now. That task for the most part will fall at the feet of Stevens. Stevens is a respectable defender and a good enough offensive player to keep Diop engaged and occupied at the other end of the floor too. An edge Penn State could have tonight is from 3 point land, namely with Carr and Garner who shoot a combined 42.5% from 3. As a team 36.4% of the points Ohio State allows are from 3, which is the 36th highest total in the country. In that first meeting Penn State was 11-14 from 3 in Columbus. Now obviously I’m not expecting that kind of showing again but the point is still valid that they should be able to have some success from deep tonight. Ultimately the combination of home floor, 3 point shooting, and desperation are enough for me to take Penn State here.

Murray State (-9): Revenge will be on the menu for the Racers tonight as Jacksonville State comes to town. Murray State is 20-5 on the year and to me pretty clearly the best team in the OVC. Last month they went to Jacksonville (I’m talking Alabama not Florida) and lost to the Gamecocks by 5. In that game a Jacksonville State offense that is 230th in offensive efficiency went for 1.13 PPP and frankly I just don’t expect them to be able to duplicate that tonight on the road. With the trio of Stark, Miller and Morant you could argue the Racers have 3 of the best 4 or 5 players in the conference. While Starks was solid in that game last month Miller and Morant combined to shoot only 5-17 from the field. On top of that a Murray State team that generally takes care of the ball pretty well had 16 turnovers. It’s also worth noting in that J-Ville State win it was Hunter coming off the bench to drop 21 points on 9-12 from the field to go with 5 rebounds and 4 steals that led the way. Now Hunter is a decent enough player, but he’s also a role player and in no way should be able to duplicate that showing tonight. At the end of the day I think Jax State had a lot of things go their way in that meeting last month that are unlikely to go their way again. Now on the road I simply don’t think they have enough firepower to keep up with a much better and now revenge minded Racers team. I could see Murray State winning this one by 15-20 points.

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