NCAAB December 12th

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NCAAB Yesterday: 0-1-0, (0.00%) -1.1 Units
NCAAB Season: 19-17-0, (52.77%) +0.3 Units

0-1 yesterday on a flat out swing and miss with Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were favored by 20 points and only one by 1. No way to dance around it, they were awful and frankly I wish they’d have lost. All that said it’s just one game and we move on. Here’s what I have tonight…

Saint Louis (+2): Murray State is off to a 6-1 start but against the 226th toughest schedule in the nation I’m not buying in too much quite yet. Overall I expect they’ll flirt with 20 wins and be near the top of the OVC but tonight is a tough road test against an already battle tested Saint Louis team. The Billikens have already played 4 games against teams ranked inside the Ken Pom top 56, including a win over a very solid Virginia Tech team at Madison Square Garden last month. This game figures to be snail slow as Murray State plays slow to begin with and Saint Louis plays even slower. One nice advantage I see for Saint Louis tonight is with Bess who has been their best player. Bess is a very athletic 6’6″ wing who sees some time at the 3 but most of his time at the 4. He’s a transfer from Michigan State so you know the talent is there and at this level there aren’t many guys out there who can check him. So far this year he’s averaging 8.5 FT attempts per game which shows you how tough it is keeping him out of the lane and away from the hoop. Tonight I don’t see who on the Murray State roster can guard him. Morant and Buchanan are too small and Sanchious and Smith are both too slow. The X-Factor tonight could be Goodwin who is one of those do everything but shoot the ball well kind of guys. He’s averaging 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and is all over the court… he just can’t shoot. Much like Bess he’s a very athletic kid and a true match up problem. If he can even find his way to say 40% shooting tonight that would be a huge boost for Saint Louis. I also like having 2 seniors in the back court. Now I’ll admit neither Hines or Roby are very talented but they are respectable players with a lot of experience which is always nice. At the end of the day I’m comfortable taking the small battle tested home dog in this one over the road squad who really hasn’t played anyone yet.

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