17
NOV
2017

NFL Week 11

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NFL Week 10: 2-2, (50.00%) -0.2 Units
NFL Season: 16-15-1, (51.61%) -0.5 Units

Went 2-2 last week and now stand 1 game over .500 and half a unit in the red for the year. Plenty of time left to make this is a worth while season and hopefully that begins this week. Here’s what I’ve got…

Bears (+3): I’m not doing backflips over the Bears or anything but this is a nice spot to take a home team getting a FG in a divisional game against a team I’m not sold on. Yes the Lions are 5-4 and have put themselves in a spot where they can flirt with a playoff bid. At the end of the day though this is a team that’s offense is 15th in yards per game and it’s defense in 22nd in yards per game allowed. As usual their ground attack is nearly non existent and overall I see them as an average to below average team despite what their record says. Yes they have 3 road wins this year but one was over Green Bay without Rodgers, one was over the horrible Giants, and the other was against a Vikings team in a game they lost Dalvin Cook to injury and seemed in a funk the rest of the game. Generally I don’t expect ho hum teams to win divisional road games and that’s the spot we find the Lions in this week. On the other end Trubisky completed 60% of his passes last week going 21 for 35 and I think little by little he’s improving. In this one getting to pick on a below average defense should only help him gain more confidence as the game goes along. Bears plus the FG here for me.

Raiders (+7): You guys know my thoughts by now on Patriots lines being inflated week after week, and of course this week is no exception. Brady and the boys are now laying a full TD in Mexico against the Raiders who are coming off a bye. Derek Carr has been playing well of late and let’s not forget he has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Crabtree and Cooper are a very solid WR duo, I like Jared Cook at TE, I still like Lynch at RB and this is an offense that I feel is going to be better the rest of the way than what we’ve seen so far. Let’s also not forget that statistically the Patriots are still the worst defense in the NFL. Granted things have been better of late, they are still allowing a league worst 408 yards per game. Now you factor in the rest and travel aspects of this one. As mentioned the Raiders are rested and off a bye and only have to travel from Oakland down to Mexico. The Pats are off a Sunday night game at altitude against Denver and now travel down to Mexico (more altitude) for this contest. I think the Raiders are starting to click and factoring in the rest plus the inflated line I’ll take my chances with them against Brady and the Hoodie.

Cowboys (+4.5): I happily faded the Cowboys last week against the Falcons without Zeke, but I’ll reverse field and take them this week. Last week it went from bad to worse for the Boys as they fell behind, gave up on the running game, and then saw Adrian Clayborn abuse Chaz Green for 6 of the 8 sacks the Falcons got on Prescott. Surprisingly when the Cowboys ran they had some decent success as Alfred Morris went for 53 yards on 11 carries. It’s when they gave up on the run that all hell broke loose. I think this week you see more of a commitment to stick with the ground game and not turn Dak into a punching bag in obvious pass situations. There’s no denying Zeke down to Morris is a drop off but this is still a very good team overall and getting 4.5 with them at home is too good to pass on. As far as the Eagles go there’s not much to get into. It’s well documented they have the best record in the NFL and Carson Wentz is the front runner to be the league MVP. They are rolling right along but laying over a FG in a divisional road game against a bitter rival seems a tall task for any team. I think it’s a nice bounce back angle for the ‘Boys and that they really show up at home in prime time.

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