NFL Week 7: 0-1, (0.00%) -1.1 Units
NFL Season: 14-10-1, (58.33%) +3.0 Units
Only made one play last week and it was on the Monday night game where I lost with the Redskins. Back at it this week with a full Sunday card….
Buccaneers (-1.5): There was a decent amount of buzz around the Bucs coming into this season. They had their time in the sun when on Hard Knocks, everyone expected Jameis Winston to take the next step and move into the upper tier of NFL QB’s and after 3 weeks and a 2-1 start everything seemed headed right in that direction. Skip ahead 3 weeks with 3 straight losses and now a 2-4 record and people have seemed to sour on the Bucs. They are now getting only 33% of tickets in a home division game against Carolina. The Panthers in their own right are struggling a bit as they’ve lost 2 straight. The struggles for these teams come in different ways. The Panthers defense is playing very well but that can’t move the ball or seem to generate any offense and Cam Newton is taking a ton of sacks. On the other end Tampa Bay is putting up points and chewing up big yards on offense but is having some problems on the defensive side of things. Simply put we’ve got two teams both struggling but I like the Bucs at home to be able to right the ship. I like the leadership of a guy like Gerald McCoy on defense for the Bucs I think we see that group play better than they have in a while.
49ers (+13): Plug your nose and hope for the best on this one. Long time followers know my thoughts on games like this by now. If betting the NFL was as simple as laying the points with the best team in the league against the worst team in the league we’d all be rich. Records wise that’s what we have here with the 6-1 Eagles against the 0-7 49ers, the best against the worst. If there’s one thing the 49ers can hang their hat on it’s that 5 of their 7 losses have been by 3 points or less. They haven’t gotten into the win column yet but in over 70% of their games they’ve been very competitive right until the final whistle. I won’t try to tell you this team is good but I don’t think they are as horrid as an 0-7 record would lead you to believe. I’ll go contrarian here and take my nearly 2 TD’s with the Niners.
Chargers (+7.5): I’ve made my point about New England over and over this year so I know you guys get the idea by now. They’ll be hammered by the public every single week, doesn’t matter where the game is, what the spread is, or who the opponent is. This week is of course no different and yet again I’ll go contrarian and fade them. I’ll admit they played well last week but I didn’t have a play in that game so I get a break there as a New England ATS fade is almost automatic for me now a days. This also feels like it could be a bit of a letdown game for the Pats after that Super Bowl rematch last week in prime time against the Falcons. The Chargers have actually won 3 straight and are playing some decent football. Give me them and over a TD and I’m in with no questions asked.
I’ll probably end up with a play on the Monday night game too but for now these 3 are going to be it.