NFL Week 4: 0-1-0, (0.0%) -1.1 Units
NFL Season: 9-9-1, (50.00%) -0.9 Units
Only made one play last week and it lost when the Bucs allowed a late FG against the Pats after pulling within 16-14 to eventually lose 19-14. Just like that we lost by the hook and now sit at .500 for the season. Hopefully get it back on track this week…
Jets (+9.5): I feel like I don’t even need to explain these anymore. Those who follow me know I’m very contrarian when it comes to NFL betting and it doesn’t get more contrarian than fading the Pats each week. Same story here as it always is, public pounding the Pats and me going the other way. Despite the Pats holding Tampa to 14 points last week I still think their defense is trash. Winston missed a ton of open throws and left big plays all over the field that he didn’t cash in on. This is a ton of points for a home team to be getting in a divisional game. Plus the fact that I’ll probably fade the Patriots all 16 games this year, I’m not stopping now.
Dolphins (+12.5): This feels like one of those “Is it really just that easy?” kind of games. The lowly Dolphins led by the horrible Jay Cutler go into Atlanta this week and clearly are expected to lose this game, and I’ll admit they probably will. The line however now at 12.5 I think has gotten a bit out of hand and not surprisingly 68% of the public is on the dirty birds. The Dolphins only scored 6 points against the Jets, they were shutout by the Saints in London, and they barely beat the Matt Cassel led Titans last week. Cutler is putting up terrible numbers, Ajayi hasn’t gotten untracked, the O-line coach is doing blow, etc etc. So it’s just easy to take the Falcons, lay a ton of points and collect right? Take the good team, fade the bad team, who cares what the spread is… and we all win, right? If it were that easy wouldn’t we all be rich? For as bad as the Dolphins offense has been it’s easy to overlook their defense. What most probably don’t realize is the Dolphins defense is 8th in the league in yards per game allowed and 4th in the league in rushing yards per game allowed. Offensively I’ll admit they stink but 12.5 points is a lot to give a defense that to this point has been pretty clearly above league average. I’ll take my chances with the Fish.
Saints (-5): I’m sure the thought process for most here is “the Lions are 3-2 how are they 5 point underdogs against the 2-2 Saints?” Well the simple answer is that the Lions are fools gold. Right now nearly 70% of tickets are on the Lions but the reality is they just aren’t that good. Stafford gets a lot of attention for that big contract but as an offense they are 28th in the league in yards per game. On the defensive end their pass defense ranks 27th in pass yards allowed, that could be a problem against some guy named Drew Brees. In short the Lions can’t move the ball and they can’t stop the pass. They’ve pulled some rabbits out of their hat to get to 3-2 but this is a team I could see ending the year around 7-9 and I think the Saints handle them pretty easily on Sunday.
Vikings (+3): Let last weeks Packers/Cowboys serve as yet another example of how people always over-react to the most recent thing they see. That game was the national FOX game and just about the whole country was watching when Rodgers led the Pack to a come from behind thrilling win over the Boys in Dallas. Everyone saw it, everyone was talking about it, everyone loves Green Bay now. Here we are Thursday and wouldn’t you know it 76% of tickets are on the Packers to cover in Minnesota this week. Minnesota is a tough place to play and the Vikings I consider to be a damn good team. With all the talk about Rodgers and how great he is (and yes of course I admit he’s incredible) you wouldn’t realize it’s the Vikings that actually have the better offense this year. In terms of yards per game it’s the Vikings who rank 9th in the league while Green Bay checks in at 16th. The Vikings statistically also have the best defense in the league and arguably the best CB in the league Xavier Rhodes who they can stick on Jordy Nelson and pretty much take him out of the game. As far as the Vikings QB situation I honestly don’t care who plays as I don’t see much a difference between Bradford and Keenum. Neither is great, neither is awful, they are both pretty mediocre QB’s. Overall however I feel I’ve got the better offense, the better defense, and the home team. Let the public love on Green Bay all they want but I’ll take the Vikings.
Giants (+11.5): This is another uncomfortable play to make but it sort of falls into that same reasoning as the Falcons/Dolphins game. If it were this easy wouldn’t we all be rich? The Giants are 0-5, Beckham is out for the year, Marshall is out for the year, McAdoo is soon to be fired, on and on and on. Again not surprisingly we see 73% of tickets on the Broncos to easily handle what is one of the worst teams in the league right now. This should be a low scoring game and the total of 39 is right now the lowest on the board of any game this week. Taking 11.5 points in a game like this carries more weight than doing so in a game with a total in the 50’s. Even if the Giants find their way to lets say 17 points that would mean the Broncos need more than 28 to cover. That’s a tall task for one of the worst passing offenses in the league. I know the Giants are a dumpster fire right now but 11.5 points is a ton in an NFL game and as ugly as it looks I’ll take my chances with Eli and company.