29
SEP
2017

NFL Week 4

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NFL Week 3: 4-1-0, (80.00%) +2.9 Units
NFL Season: 8-6-1, (57.14%) +1.4 Units

Went 4-1 last week to get things back on track a bit and now are sitting at 57% for the season. Generally speaking the worse the public does the better I’m going to do and that was surely the case last week. As is life when you’re a contrarian bettor. Hoping it continues here in Week 4….

Panthers (+9): Another week and another game where the Patriots are getting pounded by the public. I said in Week 1 that I figured there would be 16 times this season where the public pounded the Patriots and so far that’s held true through 4 games. It really is to the point where regardless of where the game is, who the opponent is, or what the line is, the public is going to be all over New England. I’m not one to knock the Patriots, they are a great team but if it were as easy as bet the best team in the league week after week and win we’d all be rich. Sure enough this year they are only 1-2 ATS and I think it goes to 1-3 this week. This also serves as a nice buy low spot for the Panthers who are coming off an ugly 34-13 home loss to New Orleans and only scored 9 points the week before that against Buffalo. Nothing more to see here than my standard and now weekly fade the public Patriots play.

Chargers (-2): These kind of plays aren’t easy to make but I’ll take the 0-3 Chargers as a favorite over the 2-1 Eagles. The Eagles are coming off an emotional 27-24 win over the Giants where rookie kicker Jake Elliott nailed a 61 yard FG at the horn. Now they have to travel west and take on the back against the wall, Chargers. At 0-3 it’s do or die time for the Chargers. Even with a win to get them to 1-3 they are still likely done but with a loss that would move to them 0-4 it’d be time to bring the fat lady out for some singing. I’ll hope that the desperation angle for the Chargers, and the travel plus letdown angles for the Eagles are enough for the Bolts to finally get that first win of the year.

Dolphins (+3): Textbook NFL over-reaction showing up in this one. The last thing everyone saw was the Saints beating the Panthers in Carolina 34-13 and the Dolphins losing to the Jets 20-6. Now of course 70% of tickets are on the Saints this week laying a FG against the Fish. If there’s one thing I know about the NFL it’s never get too caught up in what a team did the previous week. The Saints aren’t as good as they played last week and the Dolphins aren’t as bad as they played last week. This game is in London and in my mind these are even teams. No points for home field, and frankly no reason for the Saints to be laying this number. The Saints laying that FG is basically 3 free points for Miami in my mind. In short I view this one as a 50/50 toss up game and getting a free FG in my back pocket. Plenty good enough for a play.

This will likely be my smallest card of the NFL season but frankly I just don’t see a ton of value on the board this week.

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