NFL Week 2: 2-3-0, (40.00%) -1.3 Units
NFL Season: 4-5-1, (44.44%) -1.5 Units
Slow start to the season so far but with only 10 plays to this point it’s not exactly concerning. Been a few misreads along the way but for the most part with so few plays there’s nothing to get to high or low about. Will just keep it moving. Here’s what I’ve got for week 3
Jaguars (+3.5): It’s never comfortable taking the Jaguars and for as long as Blake Bortles remains the QB I suspect that’s going to be the case. There are a few reasons I like this play though. First of which is the Jaguars defense, now say what you want about their offense but the defense is pretty solid. So far this season they rank 9th in yards per game allowed and 4th in pass yards per game allowed. I also think there’s a bit of overreaction to the Ravens 2-0 start but it’s important to keep in mind those wins came against the Bengals and Browns who are two of the worst teams in the league. This should be a hard fought and low scoring game where in London catching more than a FG I’m perfectly fine taking the Jags.
Jets (+6): Back to the well with the Jets here in Week 3. No denying this team is awful but catching 6 at home to the Dolphins is something I can’t pass on. A few things to note about the Dolphins road win at San Diego, errr I mean Los Angeles last week. First thing is there were only 25,000 fans at the joke of a soccer stadium and roughly half of them were Dolphins fans. Also due to Hurricane Irma the Dolphins had already been in LA for about 10 days before this game so they were more than prepared and the normally relevant issue of being 3000 miles from home wasn’t really a factor here. Lastly of course is that if Chargers rookie kicker Younghoe Koo made a 44 FG in the final seconds the Dolphins lose that game. So before getting too high on Miami for a cross country road win it’s important to consider all of the above. As far as the Jets themselves there’s no point in even trying to talk them up. Their offense sucks, their defense sucks, and this team is a dumpster fire. This play is more about the fact I don’t think Miami should be laying 6 points on the road against anyone, even the lowly Jets.
Bills (+3): You’ll have to forgive if after two solid games I’m not completely sold on Trevor Siemian yet. There’s no denying he’s played well in those two games this season but I’m going to need to see quite a bit from him before I’m fully buying in. Sunday will be a tough test on the road against a Buffalo defense that looks like it’s pretty damn solid. Through two games they’ve been excellent as they check in 2nd in the league in yards per game allowed. They’ve been especially tough on the run allowing only 57.5 yards per contest. If they can stop the run yet again it’ll force the Broncos to rely even more heavily on Siemian to make plays. I’m at the point I’ll need to see him make big plays on the road to carry his team over a solid defense before I believe he can do it. If he proves me wrong then so be it, for now I’m more than happy taking the Bills at home plus a FG.
Chargers (+3, +100): At 0-2 in their little soccer stadium where nobody cares about them it’s easy to make fun of the Chargers right now. Their rookie kicker with the weird name has missed two kicks that have cost them games in two weeks and things just continue to go from bad to worse for this squad. On the other side everyone has fallen in love with the Chiefs right now. Alex Smith is playing maybe the best football of his career. Kareem Hunt is playing out of his mind, Travis Kelce might the best TE in the league, and Tyreek Hill could be the overall most dangerous player in the league. Couple all of that with a very stout defense and it’s easy to see why the Chiefs are getting so much attention right now. Now all of that said you’ve gotta wonder why is this line only 3 points? Not surprisingly with this short of a line and the public perception of these teams 82% of current tickets are on the Chiefs. Is Vegas just looking to give out free money? No… the fact is the Chargers for as bleak as everything seems really aren’t all that bad. There is still some talent on this team and with their back to the wall at 0-2 you know you’ll get a maximum effort performance from them here. I’ll know I’ll be in the overwhelming minority here, but that’s the case with most of my NFL plays. Chargers for me.
Bengals (+8.5): Another unpopular team right now is the Bengals and at 0-2 without even scoring a TD so far this season it’s easy to see why. Now I know the Bengals are bad but in this league it’s all about buying low and right now this is about as low as I think the Bengals can get. Again to nobody’s surprise 77% of tickets are coming in on Green Bay as the public opinion of the Bengals is in the dumps. Andy Dalton is a punching bag for jokes and memes right now and the thinking is coming off a loss that Rodgers and company will beat up on them pretty easily. As I said about the 0-2 Chargers the same will be true for the Bengals as far as maximum effort and focus in this one. 0-2 teams know for the most part that a loss to put them at 0-3 is damn near a nail in the coffin for the season. I’m not saying they’ll win outright but I do expect them to compete and hang around throughout.