NFL Week 1: 2-2-1, (50.00%) -0.2 Units
NFL Season: 2-2-1, (50.00%) -0.2 Units
2-2-1 in Week 1 with wins on Jaguars and Browns, losses on 49ers and Colts, and a push with the Bears. Now to get in there and do some more fading of the public and fading of week 1 overreactions. Here’s what I’ve got….
Saints (+6.5): It’s only Wednesday and I already can’t count how many times I’ve heard “There’s no way the Patriots can go 0-2.” Like it’s just a god given right they have to win this week and there’s no chance in hell they could open with two straight losses. I’m not necessarily saying they are going to lose this week at New Orleans but I do think the Saints are going to hang around. Last I checked the Saints get paid too, they are also professionals, it’s their home opener and they have a Hall of Fame QB. Yes the Patriots at 0-1 are going to come out hungry and itching for that first win of the year, but there isn’t going to be any lack of effort or intensity from the Saints either. To the surprise of nobody the public is yet again lining up to back the Patriots as very well could be the case in all 16 of their regular season games this year. Feels like most bettors will blindly take the Patriots every week regardless of who they play or where it is. Per usual I’ll fly in the face of that way of thinking and take Brees and company at home as a dog.
Colts (+7.5): In terms of buying low I don’t know how much lower you can get than the Colts right now. In week 1 they were blown out by the lowly Rams and Jared Goff. I won’t try to tell you the Colts are any good and especially without Andrew Luck they aren’t. What I will say is a home team getting 7.5 points in an NFL game is massive. This is a very competitive league and for the most part you don’t see home teams getting this many points. Now the Cardinals are good team but they aren’t among the NFL’s elite and now they are without the best RB in the league with David Johnson going down to injury. At this point I don’t know if it’ll be Brissett or Tolzien at QB, and frankly I don’t care. The difference between those two is going to be negligible and for my purposes I don’t care who ends up getting the nod. If this is New England, Pittsburgh, Dallas or someone along those lines I can understand the Colts being this big of a dog at home but I just can’t see it with the Cardinals, especially without Johnson.
Jets (+14): By now you guys get the idea that most of my NFL plays aren’t going to be comfortable to make. I mean who the hell wants to bet the Jets who are quite likely the worst team in the NFL when they are 3000 miles from home out west in Oakland. On the surface this seems like a complete blowout for the Raiders and I’ll admit even I’m expecting the Raiders to win this game. Do they win by more than 14 though? I’m not so sure. For as bad as the Jets are, and I know they are awful it’s fair to point out that last week they were only down 14-12 at Buffalo going into the 4th quarter. Yes they ended up losing by 9, but for the most part they hung around and were competitive in that game. I’ll concede that the Raiders are better than the Bills but 14 points is a ton to get in an NFL game and I’m going to take a shot with them. I’m just from the “it can’t be that easy” train of thought. Right now 83% of tickets are on the Raiders and people are thinking “The Raiders are good, the Jets suck, I’ll lay the 14.” Now if it were that easy wouldn’t we all be rich? Wouldn’t we all just be laying on a beach drinking our faces off? Color me contrarian and give me the Jets.
Redskins (+3): The Rams beat the horrible Colts, the Redskins lose at home to the Eagles and now all of the sudden the Rams are favored over the Skins? Not only that but 61% of tickets are on the Rams? I feel like I’m in the twilight zone here, what the hell is going on? One nice showing against the Colts isn’t going to change my opinion of the Rams and despite one home loss to the Eagles I actually think the Redskins are a decent team. This line is implying that on a neutral field these teams are roughly even and I’m not buying that for a second. I think Kirk Cousins is worlds better than Jared Goff and I think he’s got more talent and more weapons around him than Goff does. The Skins are coming off that loss so you know they’ll be hungry and fired up to get in the win column. On the other end who knows what you get from Goff and the Rams off such a big win. It was Week 1, at home, new coach and the game of Goff’s life. He never really had any success last year and off such a high who the hell knows where this team is mentally right now. Can they stay off cloud 9 and put in another workman like effort or are they going to be fat and happy? Just too many questions from a team and QB that I’m nowhere near sold on. I know what I’m getting with Cousins and company and I trust them much more, especially with a FG in my pocket.