09
SEP
2017

NFL Week 1

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NFL Season: 0-0-0, (0.00%) +0.0 Units

A new season is here and I’m ready to get in going in Week 1. For those who have followed my NFL over the years you know my style. I’m very contrarian and for the most part go against what the media, espn/nfl “experts” and public is thinking. This is what I’ve got to start the season….

Bears (+6): As is seemingly the case every year nobody is expecting much from the Bears this season. They start the year as a 6 point home dog against the Falcons and as usual are the punch line of many jokes in NFL circles. In the offseason they took a lot of heat for their signing of Mike Glennon at QB and there are already some that feel Mitch Trubisky should be starting now. We all know the Falcons are coming off that 28-3 super bowl meltdown against the Patriots to end last season but that isn’t stopping the public from pounding them here. At last check 79% of tickets are on the Falcons yet the line has come to down to 6 from its open of 7. The Falcons are a very talented offense with the likes of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but if you take them out of that dome in Atlanta and put them outdoors on grass it slows them down a bit. I think Jordan Howard can have some success on the ground in this one, and I also expect Glennon to be better than most people expect. The Bears are going to hang around throughout in this one and could even win it outright.

Jaguars (+5): It’s pretty easy to pick on Blake Bortles and the Jaguars right now and that’s what most NFL fans have been doing for years. I won’t deny that Bortles is awful but there are a few things we need to keep in mind before assuming the Jags can’t hang around here. First of which is Tom Savage is the QB for Houston, and to put it politely he isn’t exactly Aaron Rodgers. I expect this Texans offense to be pretty vanilla and one that the Jags are more than capable of keeping in check. For all of their struggles on offense the Jags actually have a very solid defense. They have a lot of young talent and have really improved through the draft on that side of the ball over the past few seasons. Not surprisingly 71% of tickets in this game are on the Texans and I assume the public will be heavily against the Jags in most of their games this season. Value is value though and taking 5 points with this defense against Tom Savage is plenty good enough for me. It feels like a 21-17 type of game with the Jags having a chance to pull out an outright win.

Browns (+9): Not much has changed over the last decade or so as far Steelers and Browns ago. 2007, 2017 and anywhere in between whether these teams are playing in Pittsburgh or Cleveland you know the public is going to be lining up to take the Steelers. This year of course is no different. Currently 76% of tickets are on the Steelers with the thinking being it’s free money taking the uber talented team with Big Ben, Bell, Brown, Bryant etc against the train wreck that is the Browns. At QB for the Browns it’ll be rookie Deshone Kizer who beat it Brock Osweiler and if I’m a Browns fan I’m actually pretty excited to see what Kizer can do. Of course the Steelers are the better team here but at the end of the day this is still a professional team getting 9 points at home in a season opening conference game. I think the Browns are going to surprise some people on Sunday and actually keep this game close.

49ers (+3.5): Staying with the contrarian theme I’ll take a shot with the 49ers who right now are only getting 22% of tickets on them against the Panthers. Nobody thinks much of the niners or their new QB Brian Hoyer but I think they’ll be pretty respectable especially at home. Kyle Shanahan steps in as the head coach and in my opinion he’s one of the best young offensive minds in the league. With Hoyer he doesn’t have a superstar QB but he’s a veteran that is better than most people realize. He gets a bad rap because he isn’t big, doesn’t have a huge arm, and can’t really run… but he’s pretty damn steady. On the other end with the Panthers Cam Newton continues to regress. He has all the physical tools in the world but he’s still struggling reading defenses and he’s becoming wildly inaccurate as a passer. As crazy as it might sound I think Hoyer could actually be the better QB in this matchup. I’ll take the 3.5 with the niners at home and a straight up win wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Colts (+4.5): I’ll take 4.5 points against the Rams with just about anyone. I know Andrew Luck is out and due to that people are rushing to the window to take the Rams in this one. 71% of bettors are happily putting their money against the now Scott Tolzien led Colts. I understand the drop from Luck to Tolzien is massive but this Rams offense is awful. I said even before last season that Jared Goff would end up being a bust and after his rookie season I’m even more confident in that stance than I was before. I don’t think Goff is all that impressive with his physical tools and mentally I think he’s way behind the curve as far as reading NFL defenses go. This play isn’t as much of a play on the Colts as it is a straight fade of the Rams. To me this team laying 4.5 against anyone is borderline absurd right now.

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