MLB July 25th

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Yesterday: 2-1, +1.18 Units 
April: 62-49 +14.93 Units
May: 62-58-6, +2.26 Units
June: 55-58-3, -4.31 Units
July: 46-41-1, +6.15 Units 
Season: 225-206-10, +17.96 Units

Back in the win column going 2-1 for +1.18 units. Both winners went just as planned as I told you the Rockies can’t hit on the road, and the Rangers can’t hit lefties. Sure enough they combined for just 2 runs. Nice when things go the way you map it out. Hoping it carries into today. Here is what I’ve got….

Cardinals (-122):
 You could almost copy and paste yesterday’s write up of my Cardinals play and apply it all to tonight’s game. Yesterday I mentioned how not only are the Rockies amongst the worst teams in baseball hitting on the road, but also near the very bottom in hitting against right handed pitching. Tonight they find themselves in the same boat on the road against a right hander. Lynn hasn’t been as good as his 3.30 ERA would lead you to believe but he’s still plenty solid, and he does his best work at home. At home this season Lynn has a 2.66 ERA and all signs point toward him having plenty of success tonight against this soft Rockies lineup. On the other end Jon Gray will be on the mound for Colorado and he’s been better this his bloated ERA would lead you to believe. He’s a hard throwing, high K guy, but in 15 road innings this year he has an ERA of 9. Granted that’s a small sample size but it’s also worth noting that the Cardinals lineup against righties is much stronger than the Rockies. I’ve got home field, the better pitcher, and the better lineup. -122 is plenty cheap enough to get me involved.

Padres (-106): Overall Jhoulys Chacin is a pretty average pitcher, except he isn’t average all the time. Simply put Chacin is horrid on the road, great at home, and when you throw it all together you have a mediocre big league pitcher. Luckily for him he’s at home tonight where he’s enjoyed big time success this season. In 65 home innings Chacin has a 1.94 ERA and is holding opposing hitters to only a .572 OPS. I won’t go near this guy on the road, but at home he’s been rock solid. Against him the Mets will send Seth Lugo to the mound. Lugo is pretty much average all the way through. His K rate is low, his BB rate is a little high, his ground ball rate is right around league average, and his stuff is a bit below average. He’s just a middle of the rotation guy for a below average team. Nothing to be crazy about with Lugo or the Mets tonight. Getting Chacin at home, at this price is good enough for me.

Reds (+150): I’ll take a shot here with the incredibly talented Reds rookie Luis Castillo. A guy like Castillo isn’t going to be well known nationally because he’s a rookie on a bad team, but he truly has some special talent. He throws in the high 90’s and as you’d expect piles up a ton of K’s. Not only that but he also has a 55.2% ground ball rate. What’s hurt him this year is a 21.2% HR/FB rate but once that normalizes he should be even better than his already solid 3.86 ERA. If you haven’t had a chance to watch this kid pitch yet he’s worth a look. Truly some of the most electric stuff in the game right now. Against him the Yankees will send a rookie of their own in Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has a had a solid season but nothing special. His ERA is 4.09 and his xFIP is an even worse 4.58. His K and BB rates are decent enough but what hurts him is a lack of ground balls which in turn means too many fly balls allowed…. and then of course to 15 HR’s in only 101 IP. Overall the Yankees are certainly the better team but at +150 I’ll take my chances with what is pretty clearly the better pitcher.

Royals/Tigers Ov 9 (-110): 
I’ll go with the over here in Detroit tonight as I see each team having some success with the bats. As a team the Tigers have a 118 wRC+ against left handed pitching and that’s even without JD Martinez as that 118 mark is the current roster only. So while losing Martinez is no doubt a hit this team still crushes left handers. Tonight they get to face the left handed Danny Duffy. Duffy’s ERA is pretty similar to what it was last season but that’s where the similarities end. His K rate is lower, his BB rate is higher, he isn’t throwing as hard, and his xFIP of 4.56 is nearly a run higher than it was last year. A lineup that hits lefties as hard as the Tigers do isn’t something Duffy wants to deal with, I think he gets banged up a bit tonight. The Tigers will send Michael Fulmer to the mound against KC and for all of Fulmers spiffy numbers there’s one big problem… he just doesn’t miss bats. Last year his K rate of 7.47 K/9 was already below league average and this year that number has gone down even more at 6.34 K/9. His ERA is nice at 3.35 but generally speaking it’s hard to keep an ERA that low while missing so few bats. His xFIP of 4.17 is a more accurate reflection of the kind of pitcher he really is right now. The Royals banged him around pretty good 5 days ago and I think they have some more fun with the bats again tonight.

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