09
APR
2017

MLB April 6th

comment : Off

Yesterday: 1-3, -2.06 Units
April: 5-6, -0.93 Units
Season: 5-6, -0.93 Units

I’m not one to whine and complain much about bad beats but yesterday was really frustrating. Both the Mariners and Rangers looked like clear winners before all hell breaking loose in the other teams final at bat. The Rangers blew a 6-4 9th inning lead, while the Mariners blew a 3-2 lead in extra innings where they had the Astros down to their final strike. It’s a long, long season and losses like this will happen here and there but to deal with two of them in the same night is really brutal. Will look to get things back on the right track here today.

Royals (+107): I’ve never been a big Kyle Gibson fan and that isn’t any different as we open 2017. Gibson has always been a low K and that’s pretty much step one towards me not believing in you as a pitcher. Last year Gibson put up a very weak 6.35 K/9 which was sadly even higher than his career rate. He also put up a K/BB ratio that was below 2/1. Not surprisingly that led to an ERA over 5 and an xFIP of 4.50. To cut right to it Gibson is a well below average pitcher and chances to go against guys like him at plus money aren’t ones I pass up. Against him the Royals will send Jason Hammel just came over from the Cubs. Hammel had a bit of luck last year with an ERA about half a run lower than his xFIP due in part to a bit of luck on BABIP and Strand rate, but overall I still easily prefer him over Gibson. At the end of the day Hammel still put up respectable K and BB rates. I’m not saying he’s anything special but he’s still a roughly average MLB pitcher which is more than I’m willing to say about Gibson. As I said pretty much anytime I can get plus money against Gibson this season I’m going to take it.

Blue Jays (-130): I’ve been critical of Marcus Stroman in the past but I’m slowly starting to come around. Last year his ERA was 4.37 but his xFIP was nearly a full lower at 3.41. Stroman has roughly a roughly mediocre K rate and a decent BB rate but where things get interesting with him is when contact is made. His ground ball rate has been 64.1% and then 60.1% in the last two years which is right up there with the best in baseball. So he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, the only issue is too many of the few fly balls he does allow leave the yard. Time will tell if that’s a trend of it’s a bit of bad luck. I tend to think those HR rates come back to earth this year, and with it Stroman’s overall numbers will improve. Opposing him is the uber talented yet still very raw Blake Snell. Snell had a very impressive 9.91 K/9 last year but a horrid 5.16 BB/9 to go with it. He also had a very low 36.5% ground ball rate. Simply enough for Snell it’s too many BB’s and too many fly balls, which is generally a bad combo. At this point in their careers Stroman is a bit more refined and polished as a pitcher than Snell is and that should be the difference tonight.

Those are it for today. Important to keep a level head and some discipline after a rough night like last night. Won’t force marginal plays just to try and make up for frustrating losses.

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