15
APR
2017

MLB April 10th

comment : Off

Yesterday: 1-3, -2.30 Units
April: 16-15, +3.63 Units
Season: 16-15, +3.63 Units

1st 5 Innings Red Sox/Tigers Un 4 (+100):
Nothing overly complicated about this one. We’ve got two of the best pitchers in the AL doing battle and I’ll challenge the offenses to do some damage against them. Chris Sale is still great and after a brief down spell a few years ago Justin Verlander is great once again. Both guys have everything you’re looking for, high K’s, low BB’s, they throw hard and have excellent command. I realize these are both nice offenses but I’ve always been of the thought that good pitching beats good hitting and to say the least we have good pitching today.

Mariners (-125): I took the Mariners against the Astros last week with this exact same pitching matchup. The Astros won that game 5-3 on a 3 run walk off HR in the bottom of the 13th. Basically everything I said in the write up about both Paxton and Morton still applies here. In that game last week Paxton was more effective than Morton and I expect the same tonight. Here is that write up from 5 days which as I said all fully applies tonight….

“Once again this year I’m high on James Paxton. Paxton does just about everything I’m looking for with a starting pitcher. High K’s, low BB’s, and lots of ground balls. Last year he had a 3.79 ERA that would’ve and should’ve been lower if not for an unlucky .347 BABIP against. Paxton is a big strong guy who has one of the best fastballs in the game and spent much of last year throwing in the high 90’s. There’s no reason he shouldn’t have a nice season in 2017. On the other end the Astros will send Charlie Morton out there, and I’ve never really been a Morton guy. The Astros took a flier on him and frankly I think over-reacted to what Morton did in 17 IP last season. He somehow kicked his velocity up to 94.3 MPH on his fastball and put up a K rate of 9.87 K/9. Again however that’s only 17 innings and it isn’t enough for me to forget what Morton has been in the other 866 innings of his career. Maybe he’s onto something and he’ll have a nice year for the ‘Stros but I think Paxton is far more likely to be the real deal than Morton is”

These two will be it for today. Small card

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