NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 Units
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 56-49-2, (53.33%) +2.1 Units
NCAAB March: 12-11-2, (52.17%) -0.1 Units
Eastern Michigan (+4.5): It took a while to happen but Akron is starting to be exposed a bit in the MAC. The Zips have lost of 3 of 5 including losses to horrible teams Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio. For the Zips the problems are simple, they are far too dependent on the 3 ball and are horrible on the defensive end. The Zips score 40% of their points from 3 point land which is 8th highest in the nation, but they only score 41% of their points from 2 point land which is 8th worst in the nation. Simply put if their shots aren’t falling from deep they are in trouble. Defensively they are just awful pretty much across the board. They don’t force many turnovers at all, you can light them up from 3, they are vulnerable inside, and they don’t block many shots. With Akron the 3 point shooting covers up a lot of warts and if they are knocking them down they are tough to deal with. As I mentioned though when struggling from deep they become a very average or even below average team. EMU defends the 3 fairly well and I think they’ve got a real shot to pull the upset here.
Western Michigan (-1): We stay in the MAC with the next play and just take a different directional Michigan. They’ve been flying under the radar but WMU is playing the best ball in the MAC right now. The Broncos have won 9 straight and since early February are playing damn good basketball. What’s helped the Broncos is a nice balanced offense. They score 54% of their points from 2 but also shoot it at 38.3% from 3. They prefer to beat you inside, but when you collapse things down there to try and take that away they are capable of beating you from the outside as well. On the other end Ball State has a problem that I hate to see, especially in March, they turn it over a ton. The Cardinals rank 286th in the nation in offensive turnover rate and to compound the issue they are only 256th in forcing turnovers. Right off the bat that’s going to lead for extra shot attempts for WMU and their offensive is clicking well enough right now to take advantage of that. Hawkins has his squad playing well right now and I just don’t think Ball State is good enough to end this run.
Out of time for write ups but do have a few more plays…
Portland State (+5)
New Mexico (+2)
Will also have some adds when some of the games that don’t have lines yet come out.