NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 Units
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 56-49-2, (53.33%) +2.1 Units
NCAAB March: 10-9-2, (55.56%) +0.1 Units
Weird day yesterday going 0-1-2 where my 3 plays went push, push, then loss by half a point. Easily could’ve been 3-0 and easily could’ve been 0-3. Back at it today, here we go….
Clemson (+6.5): Maybe I’m stubborn but I still think this Clemson team is good. I’d even go as far to say as they might have the most misleading record in the nation. Only 17-14 overall but I consider them a fringe top 30 team. Last month they lost 64-62 at Duke in a game they easily could’ve pulled out late. On the year the amount of games they’ve lost by 3 points or less is just stupid and with a few breaks here and there they could easily have 21 or 22 wins. The Tigers will have to get things down low today as Duke just doesn’t let anyone beat them from 3 point land. They are however very vulnerable inside where they allow opponents to score nearly 60% of their points, that’s the 4th highest total in the country. This is the type of game where Grantham, Djitte, could have some success. The key however will be Blossomgame. Blossomgame is a big strong kid with an athletic body that can get inside and do some damage when he wants to, sometimes however he falls in love with chucking 3’s which frankly he doesn’t do well. He’s going to need to show some discipline and get in the 12-15 foot range and make it happen in there. If he sets his mind to doing that, he should have a nice night.
UL Monroe (+7.5): Arkansas State had a nice season going 20-11 but recently they’ve hit the skids losing 5 of their last 7. I’m not sure they should be laying 7.5 on a neutral court against anyone right now, even if it is facing the worst team in the conference. In a game like this I also like the underdog angle due to the “neutral” crowd. In conference tournaments if the game is even somewhat close late all fans of other teams start rooting for the dog. They want to see an upset, they want to see an easier path for their own team, etc etc. If this game is interesting late it basically turns into a Monroe home game.
Air Force (+5.5): This one is sort of similar to Arkansas State/UL Monroe. I’m perfectly fine taking 5.5 points on a neutral court against a team that’s in a bit of a rut. Wyoming has lost 4 of their last 6 and come into this one struggling. This Wyoming team has a tendency to fall in love with the 3 despite the fact they really don’t shoot it that well. As a team they are 207th in the nation in 3 point percentage yet they cast away from deep a ton. Against Air Force that temptation will be there all night. 39% of the points the Falcons allow are from 3 point land, that’s the 5th highest number in the nation. On the flip side only 43.5% of the points they allow are from 2 point land, that’s 341st highest in the nation. So to beat Air Force it’s not exactly rocket science, you do it from deep. Wyoming generally doesn’t have the discipline to avoid the 3 point line to begin with and tonight the temptation I think will be overwhelming. They’ll be chucking 3’s all night and I’ll take my chances they struggle enough from out there to let Air Force hang around.
Wake Forest (-2.5): The overall record as well as the conference record will tell you Virginia Tech is the better team here, I don’t think that’s the case though. First and foremost Wake Forest has an elite offense and I don’t throw that word around often, it truly is elite. On the year they rank 9th in adjusted offensive efficiency due to the fact they do pretty much everything well. They are balanced, they don’t turn it over much, they are excellent from the FT line, they draw a ton of fouls, and they do it all at a quick tempo. I expect them to really have their way against a shaky Va Tech defense. The Hokies rank 196th in effective FG% defense and are only 283rd in forcing turnovers. Simply put Wake should easily be able to get into their sets and more often than not end their possession with a quality shot attempt. None of that is to mention the elephant in the room, the fact Va Tech has no answer for John Collins. Collins is 6’10” and a nightmare match up that frankly nobody on Virginia Tech can guard. Due to foul trouble Collins only played 21 minutes and scored 13 points in their last meeting a week ago. In that game Wake still put up 1.27 PPP even with Collins nailed to the bench for half the game, that’s very scary for Virginia Tech and it makes you wonder what Wake does if Collins gets his normal minutes. Overall I just think there’s too much Wake Forest firepower here for the Hokies to deal with.