05
MAR
2017

NCAAB March 5th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 56-49-2, (53.33%) +2.1 Units

NCAAB March: 4-6-0, (40.00%) -2.6 Units

Back at it after taking Saturday off. Here’s what I’ve got for Sunday…

Wisconsin (-7.5): Generally I like to treat the betting market like the stock market, buy low and sell high and here I have the chance to do both. Wisconsin comes in losers of 5 of their last 6 while Minnesota has won 8 in a row. If you’d have asked me this time last month what this spread would’ve been I would’ve said 10 or 11. Now of course things have changed since then but perhaps stubbornly I still believe Wisconsin is clearly the superior team here. Minnesota plays at the 3rd fastest tempo in the BIG 10 and lately they’ve picked things up even more at nearly 77 possessions per game over the last 7. Those numbers are skewed a bit by a few OT games mixed in but even without them it’s clear the Gophers have upped the tempo. Wisconsin is not a team to see if you want to play fast. The Badgers rank 332nd in the nation in adjusted tempo and this will be played far slower than Minnesota wants. The Gophers are a very nice defensive team overall but you can do some damage down low on them. Happ and Hayes combined for 49 in their first meeting and I expect that duo to have some fun in this one too. You can shoot the 3 on Wisconsin but luckily for them Minnesota doesn’t really shoot it much or well from deep. Wisconsin should finally get back on track in this one.

Penn State (+7): Speaking of buying low and selling high we now come to Iowa and Penn State. We’ll start with Iowa who has won 3 straight including road wins over Maryland and Wisconsin. Also mixed in was an emotional come from behind home OT win over Indiana. This is a Hawkeyes team that’s riding high and feeling pretty good right now. On the flip side we have Penn State who has lost 4 straight. Due to these streaks I think this line is about a 1.5 points higher than it should be. Penn State plays at a quick tempo overall but actually forces a lot of long possessions defensively. That’s not ideal for an Iowa team that is best when playing quickly and struggles quite a bit when forced to play in the half court. I think Penn State hangs around and maybe even wins outright.

Have a few more but out of time for write ups…

Nebraska-Omaha (+3.5)
South Dakota State (-3.5)

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