09
FEB
2017

NCAAB February 9th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 9-8-0, (52.94%) +0.2 Units

Rough 1-3 last night and it continues to be one step forward, one (or more) step backwards. Back at it tonight…

Florida International (+4.5): This is far from an ideal spot style wise for Rice. The Owls come in ranked 29th in adjusted tempo and tonight have to hit the road and deal with FIU and their snail slow 324th fastest pace in the nation. Rice has been most vulnerable when slowed down this season. Aside from a loss against Texas Southern and one against UAB (where the amount of possessions was skewed by OT) all of their losses have come in games where their opponent was successfully able to slow the pace. Now FIU isn’t a good team, there’s no point trying to argue that they are. This play is more about Rice being out of their comfort zone, playing on the road, and being forced to play slow. Rice has seen their efficiency on the offensive end take a big hit in conference play as their season numbers are inflated by a horribly weak non conference schedule. In general this is a team worth picking on anytime you think possessions could be in the 60’s. I think that’s where we’ll land tonight and on the road getting 4.5 against them is good enough for me.

Duke (-2.5):
There’s no denying Duke has underachieved quite a bit this year, but it’s important to remember that they still have one of the most talented rosters in the country. Matchup wise this one will come down to if Duke can contain Meeks and Hicks. As a team Duke is excellent at taking away the 3 ball as they are 10th best in 3 point % defense, and 13th best in percentage of points allowed from 3 point land. This should go a long way towards controlling Jackson, Berry and even Williams who thrive from deep. Those are 3 of Carolina’s top 5 scoring options which brings us back to Meeks and Hicks. When Duke’s defense has trouble it’s usually the big men who give it to them and tonight they are really going to need Jefferson to show up and provide some Senior leadership. I also think we could have a bit of a coming out party for Tatum and/or Giles whose big bodies are likely going to be needed down low. Both of them have a tendency to drift outside a bit, but they’ll have to hang in there and give Jefferson some help tonight. On the perimeter I expect Duke to have the edge, UNC is vulnerable to the 3 and Kennard could really have some fun in this one. I also think the size of Allen and Jones should give Berry and Britt some real trouble. I’m still thinking at some point it’s all going to click for Duke and we’ll get a taste of how dangerous they really can be. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if we see it tonight.

Eastern Illinois (-1):
I’m going to take a shot with EIU to avenge a double OT loss last month against fools gold Tennessee Martin. UT Martin comes into this one 17-9 overall and 7-4 in conference, don’t let that fool you though, this really isn’t a good team. They are mediocre offensively, well below average defensively, and don’t have anything close to a respectable win over a good team all year. Realistically EIU doesn’t have much to play for at this point in the year, but seeing a team they lost in double OT too earlier in the year should be plenty cause for motivation. This one isn’t all that complicated analysis wise. I don’t think UT Martin is that good, and I expect Eastern Illinois to be plenty fired up.

Oregon (+4): Offensively this UCLA team is a fun to watch and as good as it gets in the nation. They play fast, they move the ball, they are unselfish, they can shoot the lights out from 3, they don’t turn it over, etc etc. Their offense truly is a pleasure to watch and I don’t think anyone would deny that. All that said however, at some point they’ve gotta play a little defense. Their defense was at least mediocre and respectable in non conference play, but to put it frankly once we’ve hit conference play their defense has been flat out bad. Oregon doesn’t have the weapons or firepower that UCLA does on the offensive end, but they will actually dig in and guard you. The Ducks defense defends the 3 point line well, they are tough down low, they create a bunch of turnovers, and they are the best team in the nation at blocking shots. Now of course you don’t just shut down an offense as good as UCLA’s, nobody does, Oregon however I think can somewhat keep them in check. Now the way UCLA’s defense has been playing just keeping that Bruins offense under control could very well be enough for Oregon to win this game. Both teams right now are 21-3 and it’s actually Oregon that’s 2 games up in the PAC-12 but it seems like UCLA has gotten all the hype and love due to that offense. I think Oregon’s got a chip on their shoulder and they want to show that they are the best team in the PAC-12. It feels like a statement game and I’ll trust the more complete and well rounded team, that’s Oregon.

 

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