03
FEB
2017

NCAAB February 3rd

comment : Off

NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 3-1-0, (75.00%) +1.9 Units

Nice start to the month going 3-1 last night but a long way to go to get this season back on track. Yet again I’ll try to get a little momentum going. Here’s what I’ve got for Friday….

Monmouth (-8): Revenge is on the menu tonight for Monmouth as they take on Saint Peters. Monmouth is 10-2 in MAAC play and one of those losses came at the hands of Saint Peters last month. In that game Monmouth was held to a paltry 0.86 PPP despite being able to control the tempo and get the style of game they wanted. In general with these two teams Monmouth wants to play fast (73.5 possessions per game) and Saint Peters wants to play slow (62.7 possessions per game). Yet in the first meeting despite a Monmouth style pace of 71 possessions it was still Saint Peters who got the win. Nothing was working for Monmouth in that game, they didn’t shoot it well, they turned it over more often than they usually do, and it didn’t help that Saint Peters went 17-17 from the FT line. Simply put there were some things in the first game that I just don’t expect to happen again tonight. Monmouth is clearly the better team and they should have a chip on their shoulder coming into this one. I’m thinking double digit win for Monmouth.

Buffalo (+2.5):
Here’s a line that on the surface I’m sure has many people scratching their heads. Ball State is 15-7 and playing at home against a 10-12 Buffalo team. Ball State won by 15 at Buffalo earlier this season, yet the line here is only 2.5? What gives? Well for the most part this Ball State team is fools gold. Yes they have 15 wins, but lets start by looking at their non-conference schedule. Their non conference slate was 350th easiest in D1 out of 351 teams. Overall their season strength of schedule is 343 out of 351. Looking at their schedule it’s likely that after tonight they won’t be favored in a game again the rest of the month. On the other end Buffalo actually tested themselves in the non conference playing games against Xavier, Nevada, Pitt, Creighton and St. Bonaventure. Last week they played toe to toe with Akron (the best team in the MAC) losing only 91-90 on the road. They then put up 101 against CMU on Tuesday. I could go on and on with numbers but at the end of the day despite what the records tell you, I think Buffalo is the better team. Plus tonight they have the revenge angle in play after that 15 point loss at home last month. Overall I’m looking for a steep fall the rest of the way from Ball State and I’m expecting it to start tonight. Buffalo goes in there and comes out with the road win.

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