27
FEB
2017

NCAAB February 27th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 45-51-1, (46.88%) -11.1 Units
NCAAB February: 51-46-2, (52.58%) +0.4 Units

A 3-2 showing on Sunday and now we move into the new week and even get a conference tournament. In the next few weeks in addition to my plays I’ll also be posting futures on these conference tournaments as well. Here’s what I have for tonight…

Virginia (+3.5): Virginia has lost 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 9. They also lost in their first meeting against UNC by 24 while managing to only score 41 points. UNC on the other hand has won 6 of 7 with the only loss during that time coming at Duke. So this is a no brainer to take the Heels right? Maybe I’m being foolish but I’ll be going the other way and I know it won’t be a popular play. Virginia is still ranked #1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and an offense that I’ll admit is tough to watch is still 38th best in the nation in efficiency. This is a Virginia team with a lot of pride and I fully expect a max effort tonight. They’ve lost 2 straight at home and I mentioned the embarrassing loss at UNC only 9 days ago. As ugly as that first game was UVA did manage to hold UNC to 1.07 PPP which is pretty solid as the D1 average is about 1.05. It was just offensively where they were putrid. Tonight at home I think the tides turn a bit and some of those open looks they missed in Chapel Hill will start to fall. Defensively I expect at least as good a showing as the first match up and most likely better. I know I’ll be on an island with this pick, but so be it. UVA here.

West Virginia (PK): As much as I love taking teams with a chance for revenge after a blowout loss (Baylor fits that mold here) I just can’t get off WVU. West Virginia is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and now gloss themselves as “Press Virginia.” They turn over everyone and really feast on teams that can’t take care of the ball, which is Baylor. On the year Baylor is 289th in the nation in turnover rate and in their first match up they were not so surprisingly eaten alive by the WVU press. In that game they committed 29 turnovers or in other words turnovers on 37% of their possessions. Baylor has a ton of talent and a ton of athleticism but all their primary ball handlers have turnover issues and against WVU that’s issue you just can’t overcome. On the other end Baylor is only ranked 275th in forcing turnovers, while WVU protects the ball pretty well. In short this game just comes down to the fact that WVU should simply be able to get up more shot attempts. In the first meeting they were at +17 in turnover ratio. It isn’t difficult to figure out that’s 17 times down the floor that WVU got up a shot attempt and Baylor didn’t, basically 17 free shots. If that number is anywhere close to 17 tonight Baylor should have no chance.

Virginia Tech (+1.5): After wins last week over Virginia and Duke I think Miami is pretty safely going to be in the tournament now, which makes the odds of a letdown even better tonight. Coming off back to back huge wins then hitting the road is tough to begin with, it should only be tougher knowing those two wins punched your ticket to the big dance. The Hokies however by most accounts are still somewhere floating around on the bubble and a home loss in a game like this certainly won’t help their resume. Simply put there’s just more on the line tonight for Tech than there is for Miami. They won’t need any extra incentive to bring max effort tonight but it also doesn’t hurt that VT will be looking for revenge as they lost at Miami early this month. I don’t want to make this overly simplistic but for me it truly comes down to one team desperately needing this game and the other due to a letdown.

One more but no time for a write up on it….

Lipscomb (+295) to win Atlantic Sun Tournament

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