NFL Divisional Round Plays

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NFL Season: 38-36-2, (51.35%) -1.6 Units
NFL Wild Card Round: 3-1, (75.00%) +1.9 Units

Had a nice go of it last weekend in the wild card round and will hope to carry that over into this week. I lean Pittsburgh and Seattle this week but already have futures on both of them so instead of playing or hedging I’m just going to let them ride. Therefore I won’t have any plays on either of those games. If you didn’t follow my futures on Seattle or Pitt I’d suggest plays on them. Here’s what I do have though…

Texans (+15.5): It isn’t comfortable taking a QB as bad a Brock Osweiler against the Pats and their seemingly never ending dynasty. This play is all about the Texans defense which is statistically the best in the NFL. The Texans defense at all levels is exceptional and I think they can keep this game somewhat interesting. Offensively for as bad as Brock is I think he gained some confidence last week and he actually stood in the pocket and made some impressive throws. I’m not saying he’s going to go into New England and come away with a win, but if he can just make a play here and there it might be enough to stay within this inflated number. Maybe it’s overly simplistic on my part but I just can’t pass on getting this many points with the best defense in the league. To me it feels like a 28-17 or 28-21 type of win for the Patriots.

Cowboys (-5): Aaron Rodgers in my opinion is the best QB and best player in the league right now, but I don’t think he can get this done on his own Sunday. The assumed loss of Jordy Nelson will be huge as he’s by far the best weapon Rodgers has to work with. We all know they have next to no running game, and against the best run defense in the league you can almost write off the Packers ground attack all together in this one. There’s no denying Rodgers will make his share of plays through the air, he’s just too good to shut down entirely. Without Nelson and without a running game I think he could be turned into a volume passer in this game. He’ll probably get to his 300 yards or so but it could take him 45 or 50 attempts to do it, and there’s a good chance he mixes in a turnover or two. On the flip side I expect Dallas to be very well rounded. They’ve got the best O-Line in the league and arguably the best RB with Zeke getting his 25 carries a game. Problem for the Packers is if they want to try and slow down the running game they’ll have to stack the box. That would leave an already very poor pass defense even more vulnerable. I have my doubts about Prescott in general but this is the kind of game I think he can have success. You give him an already soft pass defense that’s going to be selling out to stop Zeke and daring him to make plays, I suspect he’ll be able to do just that. Rodgers is great but without a run game and his best WR he’s playing with a hand tied behind his back. Dallas is just far too complete of a team for GB to handle. Boys win by double digits.

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