31
JAN
2017

NCAAB January 31st

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 Units 
NCAAB January: 43-47-1, (47.48%) -8.7 Units

Back at it today after a day off yesterday. Working on a mini 12-7 run over my last 19 plays so hopefully this is start of a nice stretch.

Western Michigan (+1.5):
Going to take a shot with WMU here as they look to avenge an embarrassing 31 point loss to Ohio earlier this month. On top of that Ohio has a battle with Akron (the best team in the MAC) on deck Saturday. By now you guys know I’m big into situational spots and with  revenge and look ahead spots in play in this one I’ll happily hop on Western Michigan.

Butler (-6.5): This is a rough spot for Creighton. The Jays have been playing without do everything PG Maurice Watson and tonight his absence really could hurt. Butler is coming off a home loss against Georgetown where they gave up 85 points, so you can bet the last few days Holtmann was emphasizing defense to his squad. Generally Butler is a good defensive team so you’d expect a bounce back showing on that end of the floor. What’s also working in Butler’s favor motivation wise is the revenge angle as they lost by 11 at Creighton earlier this month. So if the 85 points allowed at home to G-Town wasn’t enough to have them fired up tonight the revenge angle is there too. This looks like a 110% effort and focus spot for Butler.

Ohio State (-2.5):
I think this is a come back to earth game for Maryland. The Terps have won 6 straight and frankly I think they are playing over their heads a bit. The Terps are 19-2 overall but the advanced metrics don’t see a 19-2 team and frankly neither do I. Trimble is of course the engine that makes this team run, and I think he could have a little trouble with the size of Lyle tonight. The Buckeyes should be plenty fired up for this game as they lost twice to Maryland last year including a 35 point blow out. Also worth noting at this point in the year this game means more to Ohio State (still clinging to bubble hope) than it is to a Maryland team that should be a near lock for the tournament.

Kentucky (-16.5): The Cats have lost 2 straight and I fully expect them to take out some frustration on Georgia tonight. It’s really just as simple as that. Kentucky was caught looking past Tennessee (and ahead to Kansas) and as a result not only lost to the Vols, but then to Kansas too. They’ll be chomping at the bit to get back out there tonight and I really expect them to lay it on the Dogs. Georgia is a bit challenged on the offensive end to begin with and I don’t see anyway they come even close to keep up with the fire power that Kentucky should bring to the table. Cats win by 20 plus.

Iowa State (+3.5): West Virginia feasts on opponents by creating chaos and forcing turnovers. Most teams simply can’t protect the ball against them and those turnovers lead to their demise. Iowa State however is the 2nd best team in the nation in terms of turnover rate. PG Monte Morris is arguably the best PG in the nation at protecting the ball. He’s a senior, he’s played in countless big games, he doesn’t get rattled, he’s the leader of the team and frankly I can’t think of a better PG to have if facing WVU. The Cyclones have plenty of offensive weapons, they can beat you many ways, they have an elite home crowd/atmosphere and as I mentioned an elite PG. I have a ton of respect for WVU but Iowa State has all the ingredients needed to pull the upset tonight.

DePaul (+7.5): I think there’s a good chance we catch a flat Georgetown team tonight. Last week they posted impressive wins over Creighton and then Butler, now they have to follow it up with a road game against what’s clearly the worst team in the conference. It’s easy to convince college kids to be fired up for games against the Creightons and Butlers of the world. It’s a different task entirely to get them fired up for a road game against a team like DePaul. I’ll take my chances that the Hoyas are flat enough that this game stays close wire to wire.

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