18
JAN
2017

NCAAB January 18th

comment : Off

NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 25-24, (51.02%) -1.4 Units

Small winning day yesterday going 2-1 in my 3 plays. Now back at it with the Wednesday card. Here we go….

Kansas State/Oklahoma State Un 155: This total is a bit inflated and I’m going to take a shot on the under. First and foremost here Weber won’t be suckered into a track meet. Underwood would love for one to bust loose, but it just won’t happen. All season K-State has only played 2 games over 71 possessions. One was 72 against Kansas, and one was 75 against warp speed tempo Omaha. The other not so small issue that should plague both teams tonight is turnovers. Each defense is excellent at forcing turnovers with K-State ranking 10th best in the nation and Ok-State sitting at 14th best. Not only that each offense has struggled protecting the ball with K-State ranking 195th in TO rate offensively, and Ok-State one notch above at 194th. To sum this one up I just think they’ll be too many dry possessions and too slow of a tempo to reach a number this high.

Notre Dame/Florida State Un 155: Florida State doesn’t have the reputation of most of the other teams currently in the top 10, but if you look at them on the court they are every bit as impressive physically. Hamilton has assembled a roster of big, strong, fast, unbelievably athletic kids. FSU wants to get out and run right from jump street. The issue in this one is that Brey just flat out won’t go for it. For my money Brey is one of the best coaches in the country and there’s just no chance he falls into the the trap of even attempting to run with the Noles. In fact I think he’s going to have his squad go out of their way to try and slow the pace as much as they can. It’s also worth nothing that defensively FSU possessions go about 17.5 seconds which ranks 252nd in the nation. That isn’t because FSU wants to play slow, it’s just because their defense is so athletic and long that it takes opponents a long time to even find open looks. Notre Dame’s possessions on average go 18.3 seconds which is 291st in the nation. So even under normal circumstances the Irish play at a very deliberate pace, and in a game like this I’m expecting them to go from slow to even slower. Defensively ND will do what they can do slow the Noles a bit, but mostly I’m taking this under because I know the overwhelming majority of Irish possessions should be long and clock chewing. In such a game I just can’t see them getting north of 155.

Have a few more but out of time for write ups. Here those are…

George Washington (-8.5)
Northern Iowa (-3)

About the Author